Scott Alexander answers reader questions on various topics, including his projects, views, and personal preferences in a mailbag format. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to several reader questions in a mailbag-style post. He addresses topics such as publishing his book Unsong, the status of his Lorien Psychiatry business, future ACX Grants rounds, his progress on reading Nixonland, his views on AI risk, how to get involved in the rationalist/EA community, Straussian interpretations of his posts, and his refusal to go on podcasts. The responses vary in length and detail, with some providing specific information and others explaining his reasoning or personal preferences. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates his 2021 predictions, analyzing his performance across various confidence levels and comparing his results to other forecasters and prediction markets. Longer summary

Scott Alexander grades his 2021 predictions, made at the beginning of the year. He lists 108 predictions on various topics including politics, economics, technology, COVID-19, community events, personal life, work, and his blog. The post details which predictions came true (in bold) and which didn't (in italics). Scott then analyzes his performance, breaking down the accuracy rates for different confidence levels. He compares his results to a graph of expected vs. actual accuracy, finding he was slightly underconfident overall. The post concludes with a comparison to other forecasters and prediction markets, showing Scott performed well but was outperformed by both Zvi and the markets. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander is finalizing preparations for a Reader Survey, asking participants to confirm their inclusion and make necessary adjustments before the Friday start date. Longer summary

Scott Alexander is preparing for a Reader Survey and is asking participants to confirm their inclusion in the list of surveys. He provides a list of surveys planned, noting some specifics about targeting and demographics collection. Scott also shares a link to a draft demographics survey and asks participants to review it, make necessary changes to their own surveys, and finalize everything before Friday when he plans to start the process. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces the launch of his new blog, Astral Codex Ten, and provides the URL. Longer summary

This is a brief announcement post by Scott Alexander introducing his new blog, Astral Codex Ten. He thanks readers for their patience during the transition period and provides the URL for the new blog. Scott also mentions that he's working on securing a more user-friendly domain name in the near future. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander updates readers on his situation post-blog deletion, discussing job transitions, potential move to Substack, and future plans while maintaining anonymity. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides an update on his situation two and a half months after deleting his blog due to privacy concerns. He discusses ongoing uncertainty with the New York Times, his decision to transition away from his current job, and plans to start a private practice. Scott also reveals negotiations with Substack to move his blog to their platform, citing increased safety and generous financial incentives. He addresses reader concerns about the platform and outlines Substack's commitments to accommodate his preferences. Scott expresses gratitude for supporter's respect of his anonymity and confirms plans for a future book review contest. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces a classified thread for advertisements, personals, and success stories, with uncertain frequency. Longer summary

This post announces a recurring classified thread on the blog, inviting readers to post advertisements, personals, and success stories from previous threads. The frequency of the thread is uncertain, described as possibly monthly, bimonthly, or occasional. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander asks readers to participate in the 2019 Slate Star Codex Survey, which helps him gather data about his audience and conduct informal research for future blog posts. Longer summary

Scott Alexander is requesting readers to take the 2019 Slate Star Codex Survey. The survey is divided into two parts: Part I, which takes about 10 minutes and asks basic questions, and Part II, which takes about 15 minutes and focuses on research topics. The survey helps Scott learn more about his readers, plan community events, and gather informal research data for future blog posts. He explains some limitations of the survey, including America-centric questions and privacy considerations. Scott emphasizes that the survey is open to all readers, regardless of how frequently they visit the blog, and expresses his appreciation for participants' time and effort. Shorter summary

Scott announces an upcoming SSC survey and invites reader suggestions, while warning that most won't be implemented. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces a brief decrease in blogging due to Thanksgiving and informs readers about an upcoming SSC survey. He invites readers to provide suggestions for survey questions, methodology improvements, or any other feedback in the comments. However, he notes that most suggestions will likely not be implemented due to constraints. Shorter summary

Scott introduces a classified thread for advertisements, personals, and success stories, with uncertain frequency. Longer summary

This post introduces a recurring classified thread on the blog, inviting readers to post advertisements, personals, and share success stories from previous threads. The exact frequency of the thread (monthly, bimonthly, or occasional) is uncertain. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses how his blog contributes to developing rationality skills through analysis of complex issues and community discussion, despite not focusing directly on core rationality techniques. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on the role of his blog in the rationalist community's development of rationality skills. He compares rationality to a martial art or craft, requiring both theory and practice. While acknowledging that his blog often focuses on controversial topics rather than core rationality techniques, he argues that analyzing complex, contentious issues serves as valuable practice for honing rationality skills. He suggests that through repeated engagement with difficult problems, readers can develop intuitions and refine their ability to apply rationality techniques. Scott emphasizes the importance of community discussion in this process, highlighting how reader comments contribute to his own learning and updating of beliefs. Shorter summary

Scott announces a classified thread for advertisements, personals, and success stories, with uncertain frequency. Longer summary

This post introduces a recurring classified thread for the blog community. It invites readers to post advertisements, personals, and share success stories from previous threads. The frequency of the thread is uncertain, described as possibly monthly, bimonthly, or occasional. Shorter summary

Scott announces a classified thread for advertisements, personals, and success stories, with uncertain frequency. Longer summary

This post announces a classified thread for the blog community, inviting readers to post advertisements, personals, and success stories from previous threads. The author expresses uncertainty about the frequency of these threads, suggesting they might be monthly, bimonthly, or occasional. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander announces the 2017 SSC survey and requests readers to provide simple, machine-readable answers for easier processing. Longer summary

Scott Alexander announces the 2017 SSC survey and encourages readers who have read at least one SSC post to participate. He warns that the survey is quite long. Scott also adds an edit emphasizing the importance of providing simple, machine-readable answers for easier processing, giving examples of good and bad responses to illustrate his point. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates his 2016 predictions, finding good overall calibration with slight underconfidence at 70% probability, consistent with previous years. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews his predictions for 2016, comparing them to actual outcomes. He lists predictions for world events and personal/community matters, marking false predictions with strikethrough and true ones intact. He then calculates his accuracy for different confidence levels, finding he was generally well-calibrated but slightly underconfident at 70% probability. He compares this year's results to previous years, noting a similar pattern of underconfidence in medium probabilities. Overall, he considers his 2016 predictions successful and promises predictions for 2017 soon. Shorter summary