Scott Alexander evaluates his predictions about the Trump presidency, finding he performed about average overall with some notable successes and failures. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews and grades his predictions about Donald Trump's presidency, covering topics from Trump's base diversity to the likelihood of a coup. He analyzes his successes and failures, discussing his performance on prediction markets and his overall accuracy compared to average pundits. Scott concludes that he did about average in his predictions, with some notable successes in race-related predictions and on prediction markets, but also made mistakes in overestimating Trump's competence and underestimating his continued support from Republicans. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that accusations of Trump being an 'openly white supremacist' candidate are exaggerated and harmful, and calls for more measured criticism of Trump's actual flaws. Longer summary

In this post, Scott Alexander argues that accusations of racism and white supremacy against Donald Trump and his supporters are exaggerated and harmful. He contends that while Trump has said and done problematic things, claims that he is an 'openly white supremacist' candidate are not supported by evidence. Alexander reviews various arguments about Trump's alleged racism and rebuts them, citing statistics and providing context. He argues that treating Trump as uniquely racist compared to past presidents is inaccurate and counterproductive. The post ends with a call to stop 'crying wolf' about racism, as it causes unnecessary fear and may desensitize people to real instances of racism in the future. Alexander makes several predictions about what will happen under a Trump presidency to back up his argument. Shorter summary

Scott debunks viral misinformation about false rape accusation rates and provides more accurate estimates, while criticizing the spread of such inaccuracies in feminist circles. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques a viral Buzzfeed article that claims false rape accusations are extremely rare, showing how the article's statistics are severely flawed. He provides a more accurate analysis of false rape accusation rates, estimating they affect between 0.3% to 3% of men in their lifetimes. Scott expresses frustration at how readily such misinformation spreads in feminist circles and urges readers to be extremely skeptical of statistics from these sources. He concludes by discussing the difficulty of dealing with rape accusations given the significant rates of both rape and false accusations. Shorter summary