Scott Alexander explores the universal human drive for discovery and knowledge-seeking, comparing it to 'intellectual minor leagues' and questioning how non-experts can contribute meaningful insights. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reflects on Adrian Hon's article about QAnon and alternate reality games, exploring the human drive for discovery and knowledge-seeking. He argues that this drive isn't limited to conspiracy theorists but is present in all of us, including academics and bloggers. Scott discusses how people satisfy their intellectual curiosity in a world where most significant discoveries have already been made, comparing it to 'intellectual minor leagues'. He considers various explanations for how non-experts can still contribute meaningful insights, such as the vastness of knowledge, unique combinations of experiences, or repackaging existing ideas. The essay concludes by questioning the author's own role in knowledge production and suggesting that the discovery drive is a fundamental human trait. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates his predictions about the Trump presidency, finding he performed about average overall with some notable successes and failures. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews and grades his predictions about Donald Trump's presidency, covering topics from Trump's base diversity to the likelihood of a coup. He analyzes his successes and failures, discussing his performance on prediction markets and his overall accuracy compared to average pundits. Scott concludes that he did about average in his predictions, with some notable successes in race-related predictions and on prediction markets, but also made mistakes in overestimating Trump's competence and underestimating his continued support from Republicans. Shorter summary