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forecasting (89) rationality (52) AI risk (46) Eliezer Yudkowsky (31) history (25) calibration (15) probability (9) epistemic humility (5) overconfidence (2)

On Overconfidence

Scott Alexander discusses the problem of overconfidence in probability estimates, arguing that extreme certainty is rarely justified, especially for complex future predictions.

ssc
Aug 20, 2015 4,625 words 0 likes 703 comments Read Read
study critique (268) politics (89) scientific research (64) bad science (30) link collection (23) Donald Trump (14) behavioral genetics (6) diet science (3)

Links 8/15: Linkety-Split

Scott shares and comments on various news articles and studies, covering topics from police tactics and Trump's campaign to behavioral genetics and dietary research.

ssc
Aug 16, 2015 1,976 words 0 likes 416 comments Read Read
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