A deep dive into the Book of Abraham, focusing on how Joseph Smith's translations of Egyptian papyri were definitively proven false by Egyptologists, yet Mormonism continues to thrive—raising questions about whether instrumental rationality trumps epistemic rationality. Longer summary

This review examines the Book of Abraham, a Mormon scripture that Joseph Smith claimed to translate from Egyptian papyri purchased in 1835. The post methodically presents evidence showing Smith's translation was fraudulent: Egyptologists identified the papyri as standard funerary texts (the Book of Breathings for a priest named Hôr, dated 150 BC), not Abraham's writings from 2000 BC; Smith's interpretations of the three facsimiles contradict expert consensus (including identifying the god Min's erect phallus as God on his throne); and the rediscovery of the original papyri in 1967 confirmed they don't match Smith's translation. The author also covers Smith's history of treasure-digging with seer stones, the fraudulent Kirtland Anti-Banking Company, and the forged Kinderhook Plates. Despite all this evidence, Mormonism continues to grow and produces highly successful, charitable, tight-knit communities. The post concludes by exploring how a demonstrably false belief system can be instrumentally rational through costly signaling, community cohesion, and psychologically optimized doctrines that give members purpose and identity. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander dissects and criticizes a common argument against AI safety that compares it to past unfulfilled disaster predictions, finding it logically flawed and difficult to steelman. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes a common argument against AI safety concerns, which compares them to past unfulfilled predictions of disaster (like a 'coffeepocalypse'). He finds this argument logically flawed and explores possible explanations for why people make it. Scott considers whether it's an attempt at an existence proof, a way to trigger heuristics, or a misunderstanding of how evidence works. He concludes that he still doesn't fully understand the mindset behind such arguments and invites readers to point out if he ever makes similar logical mistakes. Shorter summary

A review of 'The Internationalists', which argues for the significance of the 1928 Kellogg-Briand Peace Pact in outlawing war and shaping modern international relations. Longer summary

This book review discusses 'The Internationalists' by Oona Hathaway and Scott Shapiro, which argues for the importance of the 1928 Kellogg-Briand Peace Pact in outlawing war. The review explores how the Pact changed international norms, leading to a significant decrease in conquest and territorial changes. It covers the book's three main sections: the Old World Order, the Transformation Period, and the New World Order. The review also addresses criticisms of the Pact's relevance and discusses its implications for current events like the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander lists five reasons why Guy Fawkes Day should be forgotten, demonstrating how easy it is to generate arguments when one puts some thought into it. Longer summary

This post presents a list of five reasons why Guy Fawkes Day (Gunpowder Treason) should be forgotten. The reasons range from historical anti-Catholic bigotry to modern associations with internet culture. Scott Alexander provides this list not because he's against the celebration, but to demonstrate that it's possible to come up with reasons for something if one thinks about it for a few minutes. Shorter summary