A review of 'The Internationalists', which argues for the significance of the 1928 Kellogg-Briand Peace Pact in outlawing war and shaping modern international relations. Longer summary

This book review discusses 'The Internationalists' by Oona Hathaway and Scott Shapiro, which argues for the importance of the 1928 Kellogg-Briand Peace Pact in outlawing war. The review explores how the Pact changed international norms, leading to a significant decrease in conquest and territorial changes. It covers the book's three main sections: the Old World Order, the Transformation Period, and the New World Order. The review also addresses criticisms of the Pact's relevance and discusses its implications for current events like the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores how perfect predictions of war outcomes, through oracles or prediction markets, could potentially prevent wars, and extends this concept to conflicts between superintelligent AIs. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of using oracles or prediction markets to prevent wars. He begins with a hypothetical scenario where accurate predictions of war outcomes are available, discussing how this might affect decisions to go to war. He then considers the Mexican-American War as an example, proposing a thought experiment where both sides could avoid the war by negotiating based on the predicted outcome. The post then shifts to discussing the potential of prediction markets as a more realistic alternative to oracles, referencing Robin Hanson's concept of futarchy. Finally, Scott speculates on how superintelligent AIs might resolve conflicts, drawing parallels to the idea of using perfect predictions to avoid destructive wars. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander uses historical data to refute the Reactionary claim that modern society increases war, showing instead that violence has decreased significantly in progressive eras. Longer summary

Scott Alexander rebuts the Reactionary claim that modern society causes increased war and instability. He presents statistical evidence showing that wars and violence have significantly decreased in modern times, especially since World War II. The post examines historical data on war casualties, finding that the most progressive periods in history are also the most peaceful, while periods favored by Reactionaries (like the 1600s) were among the deadliest. Scott argues that even accounting for technological advances in warfare, the past was generally more violent. He also points out that in recent times, wars are mostly limited to less progressive countries. The post concludes that as the world has become more progressive over the past 70 years, conflicts and deaths from conflict have dropped precipitously. Shorter summary