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Jun 03, 2019
ssc
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10 min 1,538 words 388 comments podcast (12 min)
Scott Alexander explores 'epistemic learned helplessness', arguing it's often a rational defense against persuasive but false ideas, especially in unfamiliar fields. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses the concept of 'epistemic learned helplessness', where people refuse to believe arguments even when they seem logically sound. He argues that this is often a rational response to the fact that convincing arguments can be made for many false ideas, especially in fields where one lacks expertise. The post explores how this relates to beliefs in pseudohistory, fundamentalist religion, and fringe scientific theories. Scott suggests that while some ability to seriously consider new ideas is valuable, for most people, most of the time, a degree of epistemic learned helplessness is actually beneficial as a defense against bad arguments. He notes that the smartest and most rational people are often best at taking ideas seriously, but suggests this might be because they're capable of doing so without immediately falling for bad arguments. Shorter summary
Feb 17, 2013
ssc
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24 min 3,699 words 26 comments
Scott Alexander examines the claim that '90% of medical research is false', arguing it's an exaggeration while acknowledging real issues in the field. Longer summary
Scott Alexander critiques the popular claim that '90% of medical research is false', which is often attributed to John Ioannidis. He argues that this statement, while pointing to important issues, creates more panic than warranted. Scott analyzes Ioannidis' work, showing that the 90% figure is likely misinterpreted from various sources. He explains that the accuracy of medical research varies greatly depending on the type of study, with large randomized trials and meta-analyses being much more reliable. Scott also discusses how multiple studies on the same topic can greatly increase confidence in results, and how doctors' beliefs are typically based on substantial evidence rather than single studies. He concludes by acknowledging the problems in medical research while cautioning against overly cynical interpretations. Shorter summary
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