Scott Alexander analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, including the LK-99 superconductor hype, a forecasting tournament, and new prediction market concepts.

A review of 'Public Citizens' by Paul Sabin, examining how Ralph Nader's public interest movement transformed American governance, with both positive and negative long-term effects.

Scott Alexander discusses how political groups can shift from outgroups to 'fargroups', leading to less hostility and more exoticization, and predicts this pattern may increase political in-fighting while reducing inter-party conflict.