Scott Alexander analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, including the LK-99 superconductor hype, a forecasting tournament, and new prediction market concepts. Longer summary

This post discusses several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. It begins with an analysis of the LK-99 superconductor prediction markets, suggesting they were overly optimistic due to media hype rather than expert opinion. The author then discusses the Salem/CSPI prediction market tournament, highlighting how the top performers used various strategies beyond just predictive accuracy. The post introduces the concept of prediction portfolios, which allow betting on broader trends rather than specific outcomes. It also mentions a new prediction market for flight delays called Wingman.WTF. Finally, the post reviews current political prediction markets and other forecasting-related news. Shorter summary

A review of 'Public Citizens' by Paul Sabin, examining how Ralph Nader's public interest movement transformed American governance, with both positive and negative long-term effects. Longer summary

This book review discusses 'Public Citizens' by Paul Sabin, which explores how Ralph Nader and the public interest movement he inspired transformed American governance, leading to unintended consequences that now hinder progressive action. The review traces Nader's career from his early advocacy for auto safety to his creation of a new model of activism through litigation and regulatory pressure. It examines how this approach, while achieving significant reforms, also contributed to the current bureaucratic gridlock in American governance. The review concludes with a brief discussion of Nader's controversial role in the 2000 presidential election. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses how political groups can shift from outgroups to 'fargroups', leading to less hostility and more exoticization, and predicts this pattern may increase political in-fighting while reducing inter-party conflict. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of 'fargroups' as opposed to outgroups, and how this distinction affects political discourse. He argues that as groups become less threatening, they transition from outgroups to fargroups, leading to exoticization rather than hostility. The post traces this pattern in the decline of atheism vs. religion debates and the rise of intra-party conflicts in American politics. Scott predicts that as political bubbles increase, opposing parties may become fargroups, while internal party factions become the new outgroups. He also notes a trend of sympathetic portrayals of Trump and Brexit supporters, suggesting they're transitioning to fargroup status for some progressives. Shorter summary