Scott Alexander argues for a universal right to self-determination, critiquing the current paradigm of determining which groups qualify as 'peoples'. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of self-determination in international politics, focusing on the case of Ukraine and Russia. He critiques the current paradigm of determining which groups qualify as 'peoples' deserving self-determination, arguing instead for a universal right to self-determination for any region large enough to feasibly be its own country. The post discusses the complexities and potential problems with this approach, including the cases of Crimea and the American Confederacy. Scott concludes that while his position leads to some controversial conclusions, it's more consistent and ethically sound than basing self-determination on subjective cultural or historical criteria. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the Ukraine conflict, discussing international norms, risks of escalation, and Western responses, while providing various related links and resources. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares his thoughts on the Ukraine conflict, covering topics such as the state of 'Pax Americana', the importance of international norms, the risks of escalation, and the West's response. He emphasizes the dangers of a no-fly zone, discusses the unexpected resilience of Ukraine and Western unity, and acknowledges criticisms of Western actions. The post ends with various links related to the conflict, including resources for helping Ukrainians and interesting cultural tidbits. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates predictions about the Russia-Ukraine war, analyzing the performance of prediction markets and individual pundits. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews various predictions about the Russia-Ukraine war, evaluating pundits and prediction markets on their accuracy regarding the invasion and Ukrainian resistance. He discusses the performance of Metaculus, Polymarket, Manifold Markets, and individual forecasters like Edward Luttwak, Anatoly Karlin, Richard Hanania, Dmitri Alperovich, Tyler Cowen, Samo Burja, and others. Scott notes that most failed predictions were based on political precommitments, while successful ones often aligned with biases that happened to match reality. He concludes that having a bias corresponding to the outcome is often more important than being smart when it comes to prediction success. Shorter summary