The post discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including challenges in market design, updates to forecasting platforms, and current market predictions on various topics. Longer summary

This post covers several topics in prediction markets and forecasting. It starts by discussing the challenges of designing prediction markets for 'why' questions, using the OpenAI situation as an example. It then reviews the progress of Manifold's dating site, Manifold.love, after one month. The post also covers Metaculus' recent platform updates, including new scoring systems and leaderboards. Finally, it analyzes various current prediction markets, including geopolitical events, elections, and the TIME Person of the Year. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses various scenarios of AI takeover based on the Compute-Centric Framework, exploring gradual power shifts and potential conflicts between humans and AI factions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores various scenarios of AI takeover based on the Compute-Centric Framework (CCF) report, which predicts a continuous but fast AI takeoff. He presents three main scenarios: a 'good ending' where AI remains aligned and beneficial, a scenario where AI is slightly misaligned but humans survive, and a more pessimistic scenario comparing human-AI relations to those between Native Americans and European settlers. The post also includes mini-scenarios discussing concepts like AutoGPT, AI amnesty, company factions, and attempts to halt AI progress. The scenarios differ from fast takeoff predictions, emphasizing gradual power shifts and potential factional conflicts between humans and various AI groups. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes the Ukraine conflict, discussing international norms, risks of escalation, and Western responses, while providing various related links and resources. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares his thoughts on the Ukraine conflict, covering topics such as the state of 'Pax Americana', the importance of international norms, the risks of escalation, and the West's response. He emphasizes the dangers of a no-fly zone, discusses the unexpected resilience of Ukraine and Western unity, and acknowledges criticisms of Western actions. The post ends with various links related to the conflict, including resources for helping Ukrainians and interesting cultural tidbits. Shorter summary

A review of Peter Zeihan's 'The Accidental Superpower', which predicts global disorder and American preeminence based on geographic and demographic advantages. Longer summary

This review discusses Peter Zeihan's book 'The Accidental Superpower', which predicts global disorder following America's disengagement from the world. The book presents a model for power and wealth creation based on geography, technology, and demographics. Zeihan argues that America has significant advantages in these areas, which will allow it to thrive even as other nations struggle. The review examines Zeihan's analysis of the Bretton Woods system, his predictions for various countries, and potential criticisms of his thesis. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents 105 predictions for 2017 on topics ranging from world events to personal life, each with an assigned probability. Longer summary

Scott Alexander makes 105 predictions for 2017 on various topics including world events, European politics, economics, the Trump administration, online communities, his work, and personal life. The predictions cover a wide range of subjects from geopolitical events to personal milestones, each assigned a probability. The post is structured as a numbered list, with predictions grouped into categories such as 'World Events', 'Europe', 'Economics', 'Trump Administration', 'Communities', 'Work', and 'Personal'. Shorter summary