Scott Alexander tests a hypothesis about gender integration moderating political views using his survey data, finding no significant effect of sibling gender on political attitudes. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines a claim about gender differences in political attitudes and tests a hypothesis using data from his 2022 survey. The post discusses a reported growing political gap between men and women, and a proposed explanation that increased gender integration might moderate political views. Scott tests this by comparing political attitudes of men and women with only brothers or only sisters. The results show no significant effect, suggesting that sibling gender doesn't influence political views in the way proposed. Scott also discusses potential limitations of using his survey data and mentions other explanations and challenges to the original finding. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including regulatory issues, new platforms, and current market probabilities on various topics. Longer summary

This post covers several topics in the world of forecasting and prediction markets. It starts with an update on Kalshi's request to the CFTC for permission to create prediction markets about upcoming elections, discussing the public comments received. The post then announces the Manifest 2023 conference on forecasting and prediction markets. It discusses prediction markets related to a potential room temperature superconductor discovery, and how these markets are being used to track the developing story. The post also covers PredictIt's legal battle with the CFTC, the use of forecasting technology in finance, new forecasting platforms like Fatebook and The Base Rate Times, and several current prediction market probabilities on various topics. It concludes with some short notes on recent developments in the forecasting world. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links and brief discussions on topics including AI developments, social trends, scientific studies, and cultural phenomena. Longer summary

This post is a collection of diverse links and brief discussions on various topics. Scott Alexander covers AI developments, historical events, social trends, scientific studies, and cultural phenomena. He touches on subjects like AI safety concerns, social media effects on mental health, mask efficacy debates, and potential shifts in 'woke' culture. The post also includes interesting anecdotes, thought experiments, and statistical analyses on topics ranging from medieval Mali to modern dating dynamics. Shorter summary