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Scott examines the Metaculus Threat To Democracy Index, which uses crowdsourced forecasting to measure democratic health, discussing its advantages over traditional expert-based indices and its vulnerabilities to manipulation and selection bias.
Scott Alexander reviews 'America Against America', a 1988 book by Chinese political scientist Wang Huning, analyzing his observations of US society and institutions after a brief stay in Iowa.
Scott Alexander examines political tribalism in America, arguing that people often claim tolerance while harboring strong prejudices against their outgroups.
The author analyzes results of a prediction contest about American political opinions, revealing participants' inaccuracies and biases in estimating current views and changes over time.
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