Scott examines the Metaculus Threat To Democracy Index, which uses crowdsourced forecasting to measure democratic health, discussing its advantages over traditional expert-based indices and its vulnerabilities to manipulation and selection bias. Longer summary

Scott discusses the Metaculus Threat To Democracy Index, a new approach to measuring American democratic health using crowdsourced forecasting rather than expert opinion. The index aggregates 153 questions about democratic threats (like election cancellations or ballot access) weighted by forecasters' historical accuracy. Scott analyzes its advantages—transparency, resistance to ideological bias, and ability to measure probabilities rather than binary outcomes—alongside its risks, including susceptibility to crowd attacks, bot manipulation, and question selection bias. He finds the recent data somewhat reassuring (showing no expected worsening during Trump's term) and suggests the index will become more valuable over time as question biases become less relevant. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'America Against America', a 1988 book by Chinese political scientist Wang Huning, analyzing his observations of US society and institutions after a brief stay in Iowa. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'America Against America', a book written by Wang Huning, a Chinese political scientist who spent six months in Iowa in 1988 and later became a top CCP official. The book presents Wang's observations and analysis of American society, culture, and institutions, often focusing on aspects that seem strange or contradictory to a Chinese perspective. Scott notes that while Wang makes some insightful observations, he also sometimes uncritically accepts American narratives about their own problems. The review explores Wang's views on American regulations, social relationships, politics, culture, and perceived decadence, as well as his prediction that Japan would overtake the US economically. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines political tribalism in America, arguing that people often claim tolerance while harboring strong prejudices against their outgroups. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the concept of outgroups and ingroups, arguing that people often claim to be tolerant of all groups except their perceived outgroup. He suggests that in modern American society, political tribes (Red and Blue) have become more significant than traditional demographic divisions. The essay analyzes how these tribes interact, criticize each other, and sometimes engage in self-criticism that may actually be veiled attacks on the opposing tribe. Alexander ultimately reflects on his own biases and the difficulty of genuine self-criticism and tolerance. Shorter summary

The author analyzes results of a prediction contest about American political opinions, revealing participants' inaccuracies and biases in estimating current views and changes over time. Longer summary

This post discusses the results of a prediction contest where participants estimated current American opinions on political issues and how those opinions have changed over 22 years. The author analyzes the accuracy of predictions, noting that participants were generally poor at estimating current opinions but slightly better at predicting changes. The post reveals that participants tended to overestimate how leftist Americans are and how much society has shifted left. The author also mentions that there was little difference in accuracy between reactionary and progressive participants, and names the most accurate predictors. Shorter summary