Scott Alexander reviews recent prediction market changes and defends the usefulness of prediction markets, focusing on Ukraine, Roe v. Wade, and other topics. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews recent changes in prediction markets related to the Ukraine war, the Supreme Court leak on Roe v. Wade, and other topics. He discusses the usefulness of prediction markets, arguing that their main advantage is not accuracy but trust, aggregation, and clarity. He also describes an experiment in market manipulation on Manifold Markets and its implications. The post concludes with a look at some interesting recent predictions on topics like dog cloning, anti-aging, and Chinese politics. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews David Sinclair's optimistic book on anti-aging research, discussing its main claims and potential criticisms. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews David Sinclair's book 'Lifespan', which argues that aging is primarily caused by epigenetic damage and can be easily solved. Sinclair proposes activating sirtuin proteins through various means like calorie restriction, exercise, or supplements to repair this damage. The review covers Sinclair's main arguments, potential criticisms, and broader philosophical questions about extending human lifespan. Scott expresses some skepticism about Sinclair's optimism but acknowledges the potential benefits of anti-aging research. Shorter summary