Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets for the Ukraine crisis, introduces Manifold Markets, and discusses recent Metaculus questions and forecasting initiatives. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses various prediction markets and forecasting platforms, focusing on the Ukraine crisis, a new prediction market called Manifold Markets, and recent questions on Metaculus. He analyzes the probabilities of a Russian invasion of Ukraine across different platforms, introduces the concept of an 'Alexander Cube' for ideal prediction markets, and highlights interesting markets on Manifold. The post also covers new Metaculus questions on intelligence enhancement and environmental issues, and mentions several forecasting-related contests and grants. Shorter summary