Josh Morrison argues that AI superforecasting could transform FDA drug approval by replacing subjective expert judgment with objective, quantitative predictions about drug safety and efficacy.

Scott Alexander critiques the FDA's slow approval process for Paxlovid, a promising COVID-19 treatment, despite its proven effectiveness.

Scott summarizes and responds to comments on his previous article about FDA approval of Paxlovid, acknowledging some valid points while maintaining his criticism of the approval process.

Scott Alexander reviews comments on his posts about aducanumab and the FDA, acknowledging some mistakes while defending his overall critique of FDA conservatism.

Scott Alexander defends his criticism of the FDA's approval process in the infant fish oil case, arguing that systemic issues cause harmful delays even when the FDA follows its mandate.

Scott Alexander corrects and expands on the story of Omegaven, a life-saving infant nutritional fluid, using it to illustrate systemic issues with medical regulation and drug approval.

Scott Alexander argues that the FDA is too strict, not too lax, and proposes unbundling FDA approval to allow for more nuanced drug regulation.

Scott Alexander argues that the 33% rate of post-marketing safety events for FDA-approved drugs is not necessarily concerning and explains why post-marketing surveillance is a normal part of drug safety monitoring.

Scott Alexander discusses potential Trump administration health-related appointments, focusing on FDA commissioner candidates Jim O'Neill and Balaji Srinivasan, and their potential to implement beneficial reforms.

Scott Alexander compares the disconnect between American and Russian psychopharmacology to having different chemical elements, exploring why effective Russian psychiatric drugs are unknown in America.