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forecasting (91) US politics (32) calibration (23) prediction (16) personal life (10) world events (7) self-analysis (2)

2017 Predictions: Calibration Results

Scott Alexander evaluates his 2017 predictions, analyzing his accuracy and calibration across different confidence levels.

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Jan 2, 2018 2,077 words 0 likes 216 comments Listen · 21 min Read Read Opened Opened
forecasting (91) rationalist community (48) calibration (23) predictions (15) world events (7) self-analysis (2)

2014 Predictions: Calibration Results

Scott Alexander evaluates his 2014 predictions, finding himself well-calibrated across various confidence levels, and jokingly declares himself trustworthy on all matters.

ssc
Jan 1, 2015 977 words 0 likes 91 comments Read Read Opened Opened
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