Scott Alexander evaluates his 2017 predictions, analyzing his accuracy and calibration across different confidence levels. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews his predictions for 2017, made at the beginning of the year. He lists all predictions, marking false ones with strikethrough and uncertain ones in italics. He then analyzes his accuracy, presenting a graph of his calibration. Scott notes he was slightly overconfident at the 70% level, which he tried to correct from last year's underconfidence. He observes a tendency to overestimate how smoothly personal affairs would go and underestimate the US economy. Overall, he's satisfied with his calibration, showing neither global over- nor underconfidence. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander evaluates his 2014 predictions, finding himself well-calibrated across various confidence levels, and jokingly declares himself trustworthy on all matters. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews his predictions for 2014, made at the start of that year, and evaluates his calibration. He lists 59 predictions covering various topics including politics, world events, personal life, and the rationalist community. Each prediction is marked as a success or failure. Scott then provides a breakdown of his accuracy at different confidence levels, from 50% to 99%. The results show that he was well-calibrated across all levels, with perfect accuracy for predictions at 90% confidence and above. He concludes by declaring himself 'impressively well-calibrated' and jokingly suggests that he should be trusted about everything. The post ends with a mention that 2015 predictions will be coming soon. Shorter summary