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Bayes' Theorem (2)
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study critique (270)
book review (221)
AI (112)
economics (105)
effective altruism (105)
education (93)
creative writing (91)
debate (89)
forecasting (89)
politics (89)
prediction markets (88)
science (85)
AI safety (79)
media criticism (76)
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rationality (76)
psychiatry (73)
psychology (72)
mental health (69)
highlights from the comments (68)
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domain: slatestarcodex.com (1127 posts)
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2 posts
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forecasting (89) prediction markets (88) Metaculus (34) calibration (23) Polymarket (10) betting (7) election (3) Bayes' Theorem (2) market efficiency (2)

Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced

Scott Alexander praises Polymarket's election success but argues their Trump odds were mispriced, explaining why Trump's win doesn't significantly validate their numbers over other forecasters.

acx
Nov 7, 2024 2,993 words 248 likes 647 comments Listen · 18 min Read Read
rationality (76) statistics (55) utilitarianism (35) decision making (28) bias (20) medical diagnosis (4) scope insensitivity (4) CFAR (3) Bayes' Theorem (2)

If It’s Worth Doing, It’s Worth Doing With Made-Up Statistics

Scott Alexander argues for the value of using quantification and made-up statistics in decision-making, even when imperfect, as they often outperform intuition and reveal biases in our thinking.

ssc
May 2, 2013 1,538 words 0 likes 65 comments Read Read
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