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Tag: Kelsey Piper

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Feb 26, 2026

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Next-Token Predictor Is An AI's Job, Not Its Species

16 min • 2,403 words • 433 comments • 426 likes • podcast (17 min)

Scott argues that dismissing AI as 'just a next-token predictor' is like dismissing humans as 'just reproduction machines' - both confuse the optimization process that shaped an entity with how that entity actually thinks. Longer summary

Scott argues that dismissing AI as 'just a next-token predictor' confuses levels of optimization. He draws an analogy to humans: just as humans were shaped by evolution optimizing for reproduction but don't think about sex when doing math, AIs were shaped by next-token prediction but don't simply predict tokens when thinking. Scott explains that human brains use predictive coding (predicting next sense-data) to build world-models, while AIs use next-token prediction to build their own world-models. Both processes create complex internal representations - like helical manifolds in 6D space for AIs, or toroidal attractors in human hippocampi - that operate far above the level of simple prediction. The post concludes that both humans and AIs perform 'real thought' using structures created by their respective optimization processes. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: AI (109), neuroscience (68), evolutionary psychology (30), AI capabilities (19), predictive coding (10), Anthropic (9), AI consciousness (5), AI criticism (4), next-token prediction (2), Kelsey Piper (2), stochastic parrots (2), mechanistic interpretability (2)

Oct 30, 2025

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Links For October 2025

42 min • 6,423 words • 803 comments • 211 likes • podcast (38 min)

Scott Alexander presents 51 links covering AI progress and safety, political developments, scientific research, cultural oddities, and ongoing philosophical debates about miracles and education reform. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares 51 links covering diverse topics including AI developments (agents, safety, consciousness research), political news (Ukraine policy, UK politics, Trump administration), science updates (climate predictions, genetics, bacteriophages), cultural curiosities (Shakespeare superfan plastic surgery, Soviet naming conventions, flag cones), health research (Alzheimer's prevention, shingles vaccine reducing dementia, kidney donation), and philosophical debates (Hume's argument against miracles, the Fatima miracle discussion). The post maintains Scott's characteristic blend of serious analysis and quirky observations, touching on everything from Bach's descendants in Oklahoma to the mystery of why AI still struggles with laundry folding despite mastering protein folding. Shorter summary

Recurring tags: book review (210), AI safety (66), links (60), genetics (58), climate change (33), Eliezer Yudkowsky (28), links roundup (26), OpenAI (24), AI progress (14), Anthropic (9), education reform (7), Richard Hanania (5), Freddie deBoer (4), kidney donation (3), NVIDIA (2), Kelsey Piper (2), Curtis Yarvin (2), David Hume (2), cultural history (2), political news (2)

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