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2 posts
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forecasting (89) prediction markets (88) US politics (32) political strategy (10) Democratic Party (6) cognitive decline (2) elections (2) Joe Biden (2)

Prediction Markets Suggest Replacing Biden

Scott Alexander examines prediction markets suggesting that replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee could significantly improve the party's chances in the 2024 election.

acx
Jul 2, 2024 4,750 words 186 likes 773 comments Listen · 24 min Read Read
political strategy (10) Republican Party (8) Democratic Party (6) political extremism (4) voter behavior (3) elections (2)

Change Minds Or Drive Turnout?

Scott examines claims that political parties should focus on base turnout rather than appealing to moderates, finding evidence that extreme candidates decrease turnout and swing voters matter.

ssc
Jul 10, 2017 2,381 words 0 likes 5 comments Read Read
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