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expert disagreement (2)
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study critique (270)
book review (221)
AI (112)
economics (105)
effective altruism (105)
education (93)
creative writing (91)
debate (89)
forecasting (89)
politics (89)
prediction markets (88)
science (85)
AI safety (79)
media criticism (76)
neuroscience (76)
rationality (76)
psychiatry (73)
psychology (72)
mental health (69)
highlights from the comments (68)
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domain: slatestarcodex.com (1127 posts)
domain: wikipedia.org (896 posts)
domain: astralcodexten.com (560 posts)
domain: lesswrong.com (491 posts)
domain: twitter.com / x.com (445 posts)
domain: nih.gov (333 posts)
domain: reddit.com (321 posts)
domain: amazon.com (276 posts)
domain: substack.com (268 posts)
domain: google.com (235 posts)
domain: nytimes.com (229 posts)
domain: wordpress.com (175 posts)
domain: tumblr.com (159 posts)
domain: vox.com (159 posts)
domain: washingtonpost.com (143 posts)
domain: marginalrevolution.com (140 posts)
domain: sciencedirect.com (131 posts)
domain: theguardian.com (130 posts)
subreddit: slatestarcodex (130 posts)
domain: youtube.com (128 posts)
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2 posts
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forecasting (89) AI risk (48) Metaculus (34) existential risk (21) epistemology (17) superforecasting (8) belief updating (3) expert disagreement (2)

The Extinction Tournament

Scott Alexander analyzes the surprisingly low existential risk estimates from a recent forecasting tournament, particularly for AI risk, and explains why he only partially updates his own higher estimates.

acx
Jul 20, 2023 4,212 words 141 likes 475 comments Listen · 28 min Read Read
rationality (76) rationalist community (47) Eliezer Yudkowsky (46) contra (34) Bayesian reasoning (27) Less Wrong (22) cognitive biases (21) scientific method (14) cryonics (9) diet science (3) expert disagreement (2)

Contra Hallquist On Scientific Rationality

Scott Alexander defends Less Wrong and Eliezer Yudkowsky against accusations of being anti-scientific, arguing that developing rational thinking skills beyond traditional scientific methods is valuable and necessary.

ssc
Aug 4, 2015 10,781 words 0 likes 679 comments Read Read
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