ACX/Metaculus Prediction Contest 2026

This year’s prediction contest is live on Metaculus. They write:

This year’s contest draws directly from that community, with all questions suggested by ACX readers. Both experienced forecasters and newcomers are invited to participate, making predictions across U.S. politics, AI, international affairs, and culture.

To participate, submit your predictions by January 17th at 11:59 PM PT. At that time, we will take a snapshot of all standing forecasts, which will determine the contest rankings and the allocation of the $10,000 prize pool. While you are encouraged to continue updating your predictions throughout the year, forecasts made after January 17th will only affect site leaderboards, not contest rankings.

You are welcome to create a bot account to forecast and participate in addition to your regular Metaculus account. Create a bot account and get support building a bot here.

And they’ve also announced this year’s winners for best questions submitted. Congratulations to:

1. Gumbledalf ($700)
2. espiritu57 ($500)
3. setasojiro843047 (Substack handle) ($400)
4. sai_39 ($300)
5. nicholaskross ($250)
6. (Anonymous) ($200)
7. (Anonymous) ($200)
8. RMD ($150)
9. (Anonymous) ($150)
10. Hippopotamus_bartholomeus ($150)

To participate in the tournament or learn more, go to Metaculus.