Try The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest

This is normally when I would announce the winners of the 2024 forecasting contest, but there are some complications and Metaculus has asked me to wait until they get sorted out.

But time doesn’t wait, and we have to get started on the new year’s forecasting contest to make sure there’s enough time for events to happen or not. That means the 2025 contest is now open!

This year I had hoped to arrange some kind of fair comparison with Polymarket so I could prove my thesis that it usually underperforms Metaculus - but with all the excitement of the election and the feds harassing Shayne we never got around to making it work.

So the aspect I’m most excited about this year is the bots. There are many new forecasting bots, some of them have been tested in slightly sketchy situations, and I want to see how they rank against some of ACX’s top forecasters.

I’m also excited about the question set. This year I worked together with Metaculus to try to find issues that were both rigorous enough to judge fairly and of broad enough interest that everyone can weigh in (no “AI benchmark #44523, really!).

I hope this (and the $10,000) are enough justification to encourage you to go through these questions for another year, even before you know how you did last time (we will tell you, soon, really!)

So go take the contest, make some predictions, and I’ll meet you back here with the results in 2026!