Predictions For 2014 · Read Scott Alexander

(inspired by New Years’ Prediction Thread. To make life easy for myself, I’m limiting myself to 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 95, and 99. Unless otherwise specified, predictions are about whether something happens before the end of 2014, except LW Survey predictions which will be judged whenever next survey is finished)

Global Predictions

1. Obamacare will survive the year mostly intact: 80%
2. US does not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 90%
3. Syria’s civil war will not end this year (unstable cease-fire doesn’t count as “end”): 60%
4. Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000: 70%
5. US official unemployment rate will be 7% in Dec 2014: 80% 6. Republicans will keep the House in US midterm elections: 80% 7. Democrats will keep the Senate in US midterm elections: 60% 8. North Korea's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 80% 9. Iraq's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 60% 10. China's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 99% 11. US government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 99% 12. Egypt's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 60% 13. Israel-Palestine negotiations remain blocked, no obvious plan for Palestinian independence: 99% 14. Israel does not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state: 95%
15. Sochi Olympics will not be obvious disaster (ie spectacular violence, protests that utterly overshadow events, or have to be stopped early): 90%
16. Putin will remain President of Russia at end of 2014: 95%
17. Obama will remain President of USA at end of 2014: 95%
18. No nuclear weapon used in anger in 2014: 99%
19. No terrorist attack in USA killing > 100 people: 90%
20. No mass shooting in USA killing > 10 people: 50%

Online Community Predictions

1. Republic of Shireroth will not officially disband or obviously die before end of 2014: 90%
2. Republic of Shireroth will remain in Bastion Union: 80%
3. Active population of Shireroth on last 2014 census will be between 10 and 20: 70%
4. Slate Star Codex will remain active until end of 2014: 70%
5. Slate Star Codex will get more hits in 2014 than in 2013: 60%
6. At least one 2014 Slate Star Codex post will get > 10,000 hits total: 80%
7. No 2014 Slate Star Codex post will get > 100,000 hits total: 90%
8. 2014 Less Wrong Survey will show higher population than 2013 Survey conditional on similar methodology: 80%
9. 2014 Less Wrong Survey will show population 2000 C.O.S.M.: 70% 10. 2014 Less Wrong Survey will have > % female than 2013 Less Wrong Survey: 70%
11. 2014 Less Wrong Survey will have 20% female: 90% 12. HPMoR will conclude in 2014: 80% 13. At least 1 LW post > 100 karma in 2014: 50%
14. No LW post > 100 karma by me: 80%
15. CFAR will continue operating in end of 2014: 90%
16. MIRI will continue operating in end of 2014: 99%
17. MetaMed will continue operating in end of 2014: 80%
18. None of Eliezer, Luke, Anna, or Julia will quit their respective organizations: 60%
19. No one in LW community will become world-famous (let’s say >= Peter Thiel) for anything they accomplish this year: 80%
20. MIRI will not announce it is actively working on coding a Friendly AI (not just a few bits and pieces thereof) before the end of 2014: 99%

Personal Predictions

1. I will remain at my same job through the end of 2014: 95%
2. I will get a score at >95th percentile for my year on PRITE: 70%
3. I will be involved in at least one published/accepted-to-publish research paper by the end of 2014: 20%
4. I will not break up with any of my current girlfriends through the end of 2014: 50%
5. I will not get any new girlfriends in 2014: 50%
6. I will not be engaged by the end of 2014: 80%
7. I will be living with Ozy by the end of 2014: 80%
8. I will take nootropics on average at least once/week through the second half of 2014: 50%
9. I will not manage to meditate at least 100 days in 2014: 80%
10. I will attend NYC Solstice ritual: 60%
11. I will arrange some kind of Michigan Solstice Ritual: 50%
12. I will not publicly identify as religious (> atheist) by the end of 2014: 95%
13. I will not publicly identify as neoreactionary or conservative (> liberal or libertarian) by the end of 2014: 70%
14. I will not publicly identify as leftist or communist (> liberal or libertarian) by the end of 2014: 80%
15. I will get a Tumblr in 2014: 50%
16. I will not delete/abandon either my Facebook or Twitter accounts: 60%
17. I will have less than 1000 Twitter followers by the end of 2014: 60%
19. When Eliezer sends me a copy of “Perfect Health Diet”, I will not be convinced that it is more correct or useful than the best mainstream nutrition advice (eg Stephen Guyenet’s blog): 70%
20. I will end up being underconfident on these predictions: 50%