Scott Alexander reviews 'Zero To One' by Peter Thiel, discussing its advice on creating monopolies, believing in secrets, and embracing definite optimism for successful startups. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Peter Thiel's book 'Zero To One', which offers advice for entrepreneurs aiming to create revolutionary startups. The book emphasizes the importance of creating monopolies, believing in secrets, and embracing definite optimism. Thiel argues that successful startups should aim to escape competition by achieving monopoly-like status through proprietary technology, network effects, economies of scale, or branding. He also stresses the value of believing in undiscovered secrets and making long-term plans, contrasting this with the modern skepticism about individual reasoning and planning. The review explores Thiel's concept of definite vs indefinite optimism and the implications for society and progress. Scott reflects on the book's contrarian stance and its emphasis on the importance of being genuinely weird in a world where everyone is trying to be unconventional. Shorter summary

Scott criticizes an article downplaying AI risks in favor of mundane technologies, arguing this represents misplaced caution given AI's potential existential threat. Longer summary

Scott Alexander critiques a Financial Times article that argues simple technologies like barbed wire are often more transformative than complex ones like AI. While agreeing that mundane innovations can be important, Scott argues this shouldn't dismiss concerns about AI risks. He introduces the concept of local vs. global caution, suggesting that dismissing AI risks as unlikely is the wrong kind of caution given the potential stakes. He points out the severe underfunding of AI safety research compared to trivial pursuits, arguing that society's apathy towards AI risks is not cautious skepticism but dangerous insanity. Shorter summary

Scott examines the relationship between altitude and obesity, then explores and ultimately dismisses the theory that increased atmospheric CO2 could be causing the obesity epidemic. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the correlation between altitude and obesity rates in the US, noting that people living at higher elevations tend to be less obese. He discusses various studies on altitude anorexia and hypoxia's effect on weight loss. The post then transitions to a speculative theory about whether increased atmospheric CO2 from global warming could be causing the obesity epidemic. While intriguing, Scott ultimately concludes that this theory is likely not true, based on geographical inconsistencies, submarine studies, and the small magnitude of potential effects. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews Malcolm Muggeridge's autobiography, examining his experiences exposing Stalin's regime and the West's willful ignorance of Soviet crimes. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews Malcolm Muggeridge's autobiography 'Chronicles of Wasted Time', focusing on Muggeridge's experiences as a journalist in the Soviet Union during Stalin's regime and his later disillusionment with socialism. The review highlights Muggeridge's cynical worldview, his role in exposing Stalin's atrocities, and the widespread willful ignorance of Western intellectuals towards Soviet crimes. Scott reflects on the importance of contrarianism and rationality in evaluating evidence, while also noting Muggeridge's later questionable stances on other issues. Shorter summary

Scott explores the nature of scientific contrarianism, discussing how ideas spread through the scientific community and the challenges faced by both crackpots and legitimate contrarians. Longer summary

This post discusses the concept of contrarians and crackpots in science, exploring how ideas move through different levels of the scientific community. Scott examines cases like Gary Taubes and the serotonin theory of depression to illustrate how scientific consensus can differ at various levels. He proposes a pyramid model of scientific knowledge dissemination and discusses how contrarians might be skipping levels in this pyramid. The post then contrasts virtuous contrarians with crackpots, noting that the former often face indifference rather than opposition. Scott concludes by discussing paradigm shifts in science and how even correct contrarians often lose credit for their ideas. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses how people tend to seek advice that reinforces their existing tendencies and proposes considering the opposite of appealing advice. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the idea that advice is often useful for some people but harmful for others, depending on their natural tendencies. He suggests that people often gravitate towards advice that aligns with their existing inclinations, potentially exacerbating their biases. The post discusses various examples of opposing advice pairs and how different groups promote different sides. Scott proposes the idea of 'advice reversal', where individuals consider doing the opposite of advice they find appealing, as it might be more beneficial for them personally. He concludes with a checklist for when to consider reversing advice. Shorter summary