A detailed investigation of the Sun Miracle of Fatima in 1917, where 70,000 people witnessed the sun appear to spin, change colors, and fall to earth, analyzing witness testimonies, skeptical explanations, and similar phenomena at other Marian apparition sites. Longer summary

Scott conducts an extensive investigation into the 1917 Miracle of the Sun at Fatima, where tens of thousands witnessed what appeared to be the sun spinning, changing colors, and falling to earth. He examines approximately 60 primary testimonies, evaluates common skeptical explanations (optical phenomena, weather events, mass hallucination), and documents similar sun miracles at other Marian apparition sites worldwide. Scott then critiques Dalleur's theory about distant witnesses and shadow analysis, explores why more people don't see these phenomena normally, and proposes a tentative materialist explanation involving a rare optical illusion modulated by cloud cover and social priming. The post ends by suggesting research directions for those interested in further investigation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of 38 links and news items, covering topics from book reviews and religious history to AI developments and political trends, with brief summaries and comments on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of 38 diverse links and news items covering topics such as book reviews, religious history, economic forecasts, libertarianism, crime statistics, scientific studies, AI developments, educational policies, and political trends. Scott Alexander provides brief summaries or comments on each item, often with a mix of factual information and his own perspective. The links range from academic studies to social media posts, covering current events, historical anecdotes, and ongoing debates in various fields. Shorter summary

Scott examines psychological phenomena attributed to the unconscious mind, noting many have failed to replicate, and suggests a shift away from the power of the unconscious in psychological research. Longer summary

This post explores the concept of 'voodoo death' and its parallels in psychology, suggesting that many psychological phenomena previously attributed to the power of the unconscious mind may be less significant than once thought. Scott examines several examples, including the placebo effect, stereotype threat, self-esteem, and social priming, noting that many of these effects have failed to replicate in recent studies. He proposes a pattern of shifting away from the power of the unconscious in psychological research, while acknowledging the limitations of his analysis. The post concludes by considering the implications for Freudian psychology and suggesting a need to reevaluate our understanding of the unconscious mind. Shorter summary

A links roundup examining various scientific studies, social developments, and historical findings, with a particular focus on recent research about confounding variables and replication issues in science. Longer summary

This is an extensive links post covering various scientific studies, news items, and interesting facts. Scott discusses several studies about confounding variables and replication in science, historical findings about ancient civilizations, new research on topics ranging from climate change to criminology, and various social and political developments. The post starts with methodological concerns in science, moves through various research findings and historical tidbits, and ends with news about ongoing projects and obituaries. The tone is analytical but casual, with Scott often adding his own commentary and pointing out interesting implications or contradictions. Shorter summary

A curated collection of interesting links spanning medicine, economics, social issues and quirky stories, with Scott's commentary on various developments and findings. Longer summary

This is a collection of interesting links and news curated by Scott Alexander, covering a wide range of topics from medical research to economics, social issues, and quirky stories. The post includes discussions of new medical findings about heart receptors, debates about alcohol health effects, archaeological stories, studies about demographics and education, and various social and economic developments. Scott adds his own commentary and insights to many of the links, particularly around housing policy, scientific studies, and mental health care. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that ancient Rome's welfare system was similar to modern progressive policies in causes and outcomes, despite different philosophical justifications. Longer summary

Scott Alexander responds to a critique of his Anti-Reactionary FAQ, specifically addressing the claim that ancient Rome's welfare system was fundamentally different from modern progressive welfare policies. He argues that while the philosophical justifications differed, the underlying causes and outcomes were similar. Scott proposes that urbanization and economic growth lead to social changes, which then produce progressive values, rather than progressive values causing social change. He uses examples of obesity, divorce rates, and welfare systems to illustrate how social and economic conditions drive policy changes, not ideology. Scott concludes that ancient Rome can be considered an early progressive society due to its similar policies and outcomes, despite different philosophical justifications. Shorter summary