Scott Alexander reviews the results of the Impact Market Mini-Grants test run, discussing the top projects and lessons learned about this novel charitable funding method. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reports on the results of the Impact Market Mini-Grants, a novel way of running charitable grants where investors fund promising projects and grantmakers buy credit for successes. The test run involved 18 forecasting-related projects, with judges assessing their final value. Most projects lost money for investors, but a few were highly successful. Scott discusses the top five projects, including a rationality education program at the University of Maryland, a forecasting tournament, a tool for making Kelly-optimal bets, a paper on forecasting long-term impacts, and an ambitious impact assessment project in India. He reflects on the lessons learned from this experiment, noting both successes and challenges in implementing the impact market concept. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews and explains his votes on California's 2022 ballot propositions and candidates, providing analysis and commentary on each item. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews his California ballot for 2022, discussing state propositions and candidates for various offices. He explains his voting philosophy, analyzes each proposition and candidate, and provides his reasoning for his votes. The post covers topics like abortion rights, gambling legalization, school funding, tobacco regulation, and various political races, offering a mix of analysis, humor, and personal opinions on California politics and governance. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines how public predictions are judged over time, using examples like Nostradamus and Fukuyama to illustrate common pitfalls and offer advice on making predictions. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the phenomenon of how people's predictions are judged over time, using Nostradamus and Francis Fukuyama as contrasting examples. He discusses how Nostradamus's vague prophecies are often interpreted as accurate in hindsight, while Fukuyama's 'end of history' thesis is frequently declared wrong whenever significant events occur. The post then analyzes other public figures' predictions and their reception, before offering advice on how to make predictions that won't damage one's credibility or cause personal misery. Scott concludes by acknowledging that he wants to make more predictions himself, while warning aspiring thought leaders about the challenges of public prediction-making. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander summarizes reader comments about CBT-i apps, their effectiveness, pricing challenges, and FDA regulation. Longer summary

This post highlights key comments from readers on the topic of CBT-i (Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for insomnia) apps. Scott Alexander summarizes several lower-cost CBT-i apps that readers pointed out, including Night Owl, Sleepedy, and Dozy. He also mentions a highly recommended CBT-i book. The post then addresses questions about the effectiveness of CBT-i, citing studies that show it works as well as or better than medications. Finally, it discusses challenges in the app economy, FDA regulation of health apps, and includes insights from experts in the field. Shorter summary