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Scott reviews comments on his vibecession post, exploring when it started, whether it's really about economics or culture, and notably finding that China experiences similar pessimism despite 5-10x income growth, suggesting vibes can be completely divorced from economic reality.
Scott Alexander discusses recent events in prediction markets, including a costly prank on Manifold, debt ceiling forecasts, a study on long-term predictions, and a high-profile hyperinflation bet.
Scott Alexander discusses potential Trump administration health-related appointments, focusing on FDA commissioner candidates Jim O'Neill and Balaji Srinivasan, and their potential to implement beneficial reforms.