Scott reviews comments on his vibecession post, exploring when it started, whether it's really about economics or culture, and notably finding that China experiences similar pessimism despite 5-10x income growth, suggesting vibes can be completely divorced from economic reality. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews and discusses comments on his previous post about the 'vibecession' (the disconnect between good economic indicators and negative public sentiment). The discussion covers when the vibecession actually started, whether economic complaints are proxies for cultural dissatisfaction, housing and inflation concerns, international comparisons (especially China's similar phenomenon despite massive economic growth), and concludes that vibes may be genuinely divorced from economic reality, though housing prices and partisan political feelings play significant roles. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent events in prediction markets, including a costly prank on Manifold, debt ceiling forecasts, a study on long-term predictions, and a high-profile hyperinflation bet. Longer summary

This post covers several topics in the world of prediction markets and forecasting. It begins with the story of a Manifold user who lost $29,000 in a prank market, leading to changes in Manifold's policies. It then discusses recent predictions about the US debt ceiling, a study on long-term forecasting accuracy, and a high-profile bet about hyperinflation between Balaji Srinivasan and James Medlock. The post ends with updates on other prediction markets, including ones about open-source AI and the ACX book review contest. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses potential Trump administration health-related appointments, focusing on FDA commissioner candidates Jim O'Neill and Balaji Srinivasan, and their potential to implement beneficial reforms. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses potential Trump administration picks for key health-related positions, particularly the FDA commissioner and NIH chief. He expresses excitement about the possibility of Jim O'Neill or Balaji Srinivasan being chosen for FDA commissioner, viewing them as principled libertarians who could implement beneficial reforms. Alexander outlines several policies these candidates might pursue, such as medical reciprocity with other countries and streamlining generic drug approvals. He also mentions John Ioannidis as a surprising potential pick for NIH chief, praising his work in improving medical research standards. The post concludes by noting that pharmaceutical industry stocks haven't moved much in response to these potential appointments. Shorter summary