How to explore Scott Alexander's work and his 1500+ blog posts? This unaffiliated fan website lets you sort and search through the whole codex. Enjoy!

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4 posts found
Feb 20, 2024
acx

Mantic Monday 2/19/24

28 min • 3,822 words • 137 comments • 67 likes • podcast (26 min)
Scott Alexander explores recent advancements in AI-powered prediction markets, including bot-based systems, AI forecasters, and their potential impact on future predictions and decision-making. Longer summary
This post discusses recent developments in prediction markets and AI forecasting. It covers Manifold's bot-based prediction markets, FutureSearch's AI forecasting system, Vitalik Buterin's thoughts on AI and crypto in prediction markets, a Manifold promotional event called 'Bet On Love', and various current market predictions on topics like AI capabilities and political events. The post also includes short links to related articles and forecasting resources. Shorter summary
Dec 05, 2023
acx

Mantic Monday 12/4/23

34 min • 4,722 words • 289 comments • 68 likes • podcast (29 min)
The post discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including challenges in market design, updates to forecasting platforms, and current market predictions on various topics. Longer summary
This post covers several topics in prediction markets and forecasting. It starts by discussing the challenges of designing prediction markets for 'why' questions, using the OpenAI situation as an example. It then reviews the progress of Manifold's dating site, Manifold.love, after one month. The post also covers Metaculus' recent platform updates, including new scoring systems and leaderboards. Finally, it analyzes various current prediction markets, including geopolitical events, elections, and the TIME Person of the Year. Shorter summary
May 23, 2023
acx

Mantic Monday 5/22/23

32 min • 4,397 words • 164 comments • 88 likes • podcast (30 min)
Scott Alexander discusses recent events in prediction markets, including a costly prank on Manifold, debt ceiling forecasts, a study on long-term predictions, and a high-profile hyperinflation bet. Longer summary
This post covers several topics in the world of prediction markets and forecasting. It begins with the story of a Manifold user who lost $29,000 in a prank market, leading to changes in Manifold's policies. It then discusses recent predictions about the US debt ceiling, a study on long-term forecasting accuracy, and a high-profile bet about hyperinflation between Balaji Srinivasan and James Medlock. The post ends with updates on other prediction markets, including ones about open-source AI and the ACX book review contest. Shorter summary
Feb 21, 2022
acx

Play Money And Reputation Systems

19 min • 2,552 words • 145 comments • 56 likes • podcast (19 min)
Scott analyzes play money and reputation systems in prediction markets, discussing their designs, challenges, and potential improvements. Longer summary
Scott Alexander discusses the design and effectiveness of play money and reputation systems in prediction markets, focusing on Metaculus and Manifold. He explores the trade-offs between absolute and relative accuracy, zero-sum and positive-sum scoring, and the challenges these systems face. Scott points out that reputation systems often fail to provide actual reputation benefits, and play money systems struggle with market inefficiencies due to limited incentives. He suggests potential improvements, such as offering interest-free loans for specific markets, to address these issues. Shorter summary