Scott Alexander investigates the reliability of dietary supplements, finding that while issues exist, most are not completely fake as some media reports claim. Longer summary

Scott Alexander examines the trustworthiness of dietary supplements, debunking widespread claims that most are completely fake. He analyzes studies, consumer lab reports, and industry insider accounts to conclude that while there are issues in the supplement industry, outright fraud is rare, especially for common vitamins and minerals. More complex botanicals and trendy supplements may have more variability, but complete absence of active ingredients is uncommon. Scott suggests consumers should be discerning, especially with lesser-known products, but notes that for many supplements, precise dosing may not be critical. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines the shutdown of PredictIt and its implications for the prediction market industry, while also highlighting new developments and forecasts in the field. Longer summary

This post discusses the recent shutdown of PredictIt, a prominent prediction market, by the CFTC. It explores potential reasons for the shutdown, including suspicions of lobbying by competitor Kalshi. The post also covers new developments in the prediction market space, including Hedgehog Markets allowing user-created markets, a forecasting tournament by the Salem Center and CSPI, and updates on various prediction markets and their forecasts on topics like China-US conflict, AI-generated music, and remote college education. Shorter summary

TracingWoodgrains and Michael Pershan analyze the effectiveness of ability grouping, acceleration, and personalization software in serving advanced students in the education system. Longer summary

This post is an entry to the Adversarial Collaboration Contest by TracingWoodgrains and Michael Pershan, discussing whether the education system adequately serves advanced students. It examines three main approaches: ability grouping, acceleration, and personalization software. The authors review research on each approach, discuss their pros and cons, and explore the tensions between different educational goals. They conclude with practical advice for parents, educators, and educational reformers. Shorter summary

The post explores how Bayesian processes in the brain might explain perception and various mental disorders, linking neurotransmitters to different aspects of Bayesian reasoning. Longer summary

This post explores the application of Bayes' Theorem to neuroscience and psychiatry. It discusses how the brain might use Bayesian processes for perception and cognition, and how disruptions in these processes could explain various mental disorders. The author first explains Bayes' Theorem and its relevance to perception, then delves into a neuroscientific model that links neurotransmitters to different aspects of Bayesian processing. The post then applies this model to explain phenomena in schizophrenia, psychedelic experiences, and autism. The author concludes by pointing out some limitations and inconsistencies in the model, while still appreciating its potential as a high-level framework for understanding brain function and mental disorders. Shorter summary