A critical review of 'Why Nations Fail' that examines the authors' academic work and methodology, while questioning the book's quality and practical implications. Longer summary

This review critiques 'Why Nations Fail' by Acemoglu and Robinson (AR), arguing that while the book itself is not very good, AR's academic papers present a more compelling case for their thesis that political institutions are the main determinant of economic growth. The reviewer explains AR's methodology using instrumental variables, discusses their evidence and criticisms, and ultimately concludes that even if AR are correct, their extremely long-run focus may not be very useful for practical policymaking or development efforts. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including Metaculus' milestone, PredictIt's legal issues, and various prediction market topics. Longer summary

This Mantic Monday post covers several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. Scott discusses Metaculus reaching its one millionth prediction, PredictIt's legal battle with the CFTC, former Russian President Medvedev's outlandish 2023 predictions, conspiracy theory prediction markets, Scott's own 2022 prediction calibration results, updates on 'scandal markets', and highlights from various current prediction markets. He also shares some thoughts on the challenges and potential pitfalls of certain types of prediction markets. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering research studies, social issues, economic trends and cultural phenomena that challenged expectations. Longer summary

This is a links post compiling various interesting news and studies from different fields. It covers a range of topics from historical myths about Europe's Little Ice Age to current research on poverty, artificial sweeteners, and military suicide rates. Scott highlights several studies that challenged his expectations, including findings about soda taxes and weight loss mortality. The post also touches on social issues like accusations of sexism in libraries and reactions to businesses refusing service to gay weddings. Shorter summary