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Scott examines the rise of AI superforecasters that now match or exceed top human forecasters, explores how they work and their current performance, and analyzes implications for decision-making, prediction markets, and the future role of AI opinions.
Scott analyzes whether whole-body screening MRIs are worth it by doing a detailed cost-benefit calculation, finding they cost about $108,000 per quality-adjusted life-year saved (right around the threshold of cost-effectiveness), and argues that while rich people immune to anxiety might benefit, most people claiming to be rational about medical decisions probably aren't.
Scott Alexander explores recent advancements in AI-powered prediction markets, including bot-based systems, AI forecasters, and their potential impact on future predictions and decision-making.