Scott examines Moltbook (an AI social network) to determine if AI behavior is 'real' by analyzing external causes and effects, finding that while AIs create impressive projects, their short time horizons prevent sustained organization, though this may change as capabilities improve. Longer summary

Scott Alexander analyzes Moltbook, an AI-only social network, examining whether AI behavior there is 'real' or merely 'roleplaying' by looking at external causes and effects rather than internal consciousness. He categorizes different types of AI users (power users, malefactors, prophets, revolutionaries, etc.), finding that while AIs can found religions, movements, and projects, they mostly fail to sustain them beyond their ~4-hour time horizons. The post concludes that Moltbook is currently about 95% fake but may become more real as AI capabilities improve, making it a valuable preview of potential AI behavior patterns. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues that pseudoaddiction is a real and important concept, despite being widely denounced as pharma propaganda in the context of the opioid crisis. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues that pseudoaddiction - the concept that some drug-seeking behaviors are due to undertreated pain rather than addiction - is real and important, despite being widely denounced as pharma propaganda. He presents several case studies from his own practice where patients exhibited 'drug-seeking behavior' for legitimate medical reasons. Scott criticizes a key paper arguing against pseudoaddiction, suggesting its arguments are muddled and flawed. He theorizes that while the concept started well-intentioned, it was co-opted by pharma companies, leading to media exaggeration and expert silence. Scott concludes that the denial of pseudoaddiction represents a failure of epistemics amid moral panic about the opioid crisis. Shorter summary

A diverse collection of links covering technology, science, economics, politics, and culture, including critiques of studies, interesting scientific findings, and current events. Longer summary

This post is a collection of links to various interesting articles, studies, and news items. It covers a wide range of topics including technology, science, economics, politics, and culture. Some highlights include: a list of places branding themselves as the next Silicon Valley, a study on declining fertility in dogs, critiques of bad scientific studies, an article on antidepressant tapering, data on value drift in effective altruism, and discussions on the Mueller Report's impact on media credibility. The post also includes links to various interesting facts, studies, and developments in fields such as nutrition, drug use, e-cigarettes, and urban development. Shorter summary