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3 posts

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book review (219) debate (86) Bayesian reasoning (21) COVID-19 origins (6) probabilistic reasoning (5) evidence analysis (4) scientific uncertainty (3) lab leak theory (3) Wuhan Institute of Virology (2) zoonosis (2) Rootclaim (2)

Practically-A-Book Review: Rootclaim $100,000 Lab Leak Debate

Scott Alexander reviews a $100,000 debate on COVID-19 origins, where the zoonotic hypothesis unexpectedly won against the lab leak theory.

acx

Mar 28, 2024 18,207 words 369 likes 905 comments Listen · 95 min Read Read

study critique (268) AI (112) forecasting (89) prediction markets (87) Metaculus (34) Manifold Markets (12) GPT models (6)

Mantic Monday 4/24/23

The post explores AI forecasting capabilities, compares prediction market performances, and provides updates on various ongoing predictions in technology and politics.

acx

Apr 25, 2023 1,989 words 60 likes 136 comments Listen · 13 min Read Read

economics (103) politics (89) science (85) technology (63) links (62) philosophy (47) culture (45) literature (8) health (3)

Links 2/20

Scott Alexander presents a curated list of interesting links and news items on topics ranging from politics and science to technology and culture.

ssc

Feb 19, 2020 3,021 words 0 likes 501 comments Read Read

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