Scott Alexander summarizes a debate between Yudkowsky and Christiano on whether AI progress will be gradual or sudden, exploring their key arguments and implications. Longer summary

This post summarizes a debate between Eliezer Yudkowsky and Paul Christiano on AI takeoff speeds. Christiano argues for a gradual takeoff where AI capabilities increase smoothly, while Yudkowsky predicts a sudden, discontinuous jump to superintelligence. The post explores their key arguments, including historical analogies, the nature of intelligence and recursive self-improvement, and how to measure AI progress. It concludes that while forecasters slightly favor Christiano's view, both scenarios present significant risks that are worth preparing for. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of interesting news items, scientific findings, and cultural observations, covering topics from archaeology to economics to social issues. Longer summary

This post is a collection of interesting links and news items from various fields. It covers topics such as archaeology, economics, politics, science, technology, and social issues. The author, Scott Alexander, provides brief summaries and commentary on each item, often with a touch of humor or irony. The post includes stories about unexpected discoveries, unusual historical facts, scientific developments, and cultural phenomena. It also touches on some ongoing debates in fields like healthcare economics and free speech. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander analyzes a paper suggesting scientific progress is slowing relative to researcher numbers, arguing this trend is expected and possibly beneficial. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a paper by Bloom, Jones, Reenen & Webb (2018) that suggests scientific progress is slowing down relative to the number of researchers. The paper shows that while progress in various fields (e.g., transistor density, crop yields) remains constant, the number of researchers has increased exponentially. Scott argues that this constant progress despite exponential increase in inputs should be our null hypothesis, as expecting proportional increases would lead to unrealistic outcomes. He suggests that the 'low-hanging fruit' explanation is most plausible, where early discoveries were easier to make. Scott also warns against trying to 'fix' this trend, as it could lead to dangerous consequences if scientific progress accelerated too quickly. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander examines a paper suggesting scientific progress is slowing relative to researcher numbers, arguing this trend is expected and potentially beneficial. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses a paper by Bloom, Jones, Reenen & Webb (2018) that suggests scientific progress is slowing down relative to the number of researchers. The paper shows that while progress in various fields (like transistor density, crop yields, and economic productivity) has remained constant or grown linearly, the number of researchers has increased exponentially. Scott argues that this constant progress despite exponential input growth should be our null hypothesis, as the alternative would lead to unrealistic scenarios like immortality or 50% annual GDP growth. He suggests that the 'low-hanging fruit' explanation is most plausible, where easier discoveries are made first, making further progress increasingly difficult. Scott also cautions against trying to 'fix' this trend, noting potential dangers of accelerated scientific progress. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents counterarguments to YIMBY housing policies, questioning their effectiveness and considering NIMBY perspectives. Longer summary

Scott Alexander steelmans the NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) position against YIMBYism (Yes In My Back Yard) in housing policy debates, particularly focused on San Francisco. He argues that: 1) San Francisco's housing growth rate is not uniquely low, 2) Building more housing may not significantly lower rents, 3) Increased housing supply could potentially increase rents due to agglomeration effects, 4) NIMBYs have valid reasons to oppose development, and 5) Increasing housing supply might trap more people in an undesirable equilibrium. He concludes by acknowledging the lack of clear alternatives but expressing skepticism that simply building more housing will solve the problem. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reposts his 'Non-Libertarian FAQ' critiquing libertarian philosophy and arguments, noting it no longer fully reflects his current views. Longer summary

This post is a reposting of Scott Alexander's 'Non-Libertarian FAQ' (aka 'Why I Hate Your Freedom'), which he wrote about 5 years prior. The FAQ aims to provide a comprehensive critique of libertarian philosophy and arguments. It covers economic issues like externalities and market failures, social issues like social mobility and taxation, political issues like government competence and specific policy areas, and moral issues around rights and consequentialism. The author notes that this version no longer fully reflects his current views and is being reposted by popular request and for historical interest. Shorter summary