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Feb 27, 2017
ssc
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23 min 3,531 words 211 comments
Scott Alexander examines a failed replication of a study claiming analytical thinking promotes religious disbelief, and discusses the broader implications for understanding the relationship between thinking styles and religious belief. Longer summary
Scott Alexander reviews a study by Gervais and Norenzayan (G&N) that claimed analytical thinking promotes religious disbelief, and its subsequent failed replication attempts. The original study consisted of five experiments, including priming participants with images or word tasks before assessing their religious beliefs. The Reproducibility Project's replication of two of these experiments failed to find the same effects. Scott discusses the implications of this failure, noting that even studies that seem well-designed can fail to replicate. He then examines a meta-analysis by Pennycook et al. that found a small but consistent correlation between analytical thinking and irreligiosity across multiple studies. Scott concludes by summarizing key takeaways about the relationship between analytical thinking, IQ, and religious belief, as well as lessons about the replicability of psychological studies. Shorter summary
Feb 04, 2016
ssc
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14 min 2,156 words 364 comments
Scott Alexander reviews 'Superforecasting' by Philip Tetlock, discussing the traits of highly accurate predictors and the book's validation of rationalist techniques. Longer summary
This post reviews Philip Tetlock's book 'Superforecasting', which explores the qualities of highly accurate predictors. Tetlock's Good Judgment Project identified a group of 'superforecasters' who consistently outperformed others, including CIA analysts. The review discusses the characteristics of these superforecasters, emphasizing their understanding of logic and probability, ability to break down problems, and resistance to cognitive biases. Scott Alexander notes the similarities between superforecasters' methods and rationalist techniques, suggesting the book's value lies in providing high-status validation for these approaches rather than presenting new information to those already familiar with rationality concepts. Shorter summary
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