Marc Andreessen's crypto SuperPAC spent $260 million in 2024 to successfully pressure politicians on crypto regulation, and now he's launching similarly massive AI-focused PACs that could dominate AI policy unless AI safety supporters organize their own political funding. Longer summary

Scott revisits his 2019 question about why there's so little money in politics relative to other industries, and reports that Marc Andreessen has essentially solved this puzzle by spending massively on crypto PACs in 2024 with overwhelming success. His Fairshake PAC raised $260 million (compared to AIPAC's $87 million), successfully pressured politicians into pro-crypto positions, and may have effectively purchased control over crypto regulation. Now Andreessen and others are launching AI-focused SuperPACs with $200+ million in funding, threatening to do the same for AI policy. Scott explains the mechanics of hard vs soft money, why the strategy worked, and ends by calling on AI safety supporters to organize their own political funding efforts to counter this influence. Shorter summary

Scott examines a new AI forecaster, discusses Polymarket's success, and reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting. Longer summary

This post discusses recent developments in AI forecasting and prediction markets. It starts by examining FiveThirtyNine, a new AI forecaster claiming to be superintelligent, but finds its performance questionable. The post then briefly mentions r/MarkMyWords, a subreddit for bold predictions. It goes on to discuss Polymarket's recent success, particularly in betting on the 2024 US presidential election. The post concludes with a roundup of interesting prediction markets and forecasting-related news, including political betting controversies in the UK and updates on the Kalshi vs. CFTC legal battle. Shorter summary

The review examines 'Lying for Money' by Dan Davies, which explores various types of financial fraud and their economic implications, discussing main themes and types of white-collar crime. Longer summary

This book review explores 'Lying for Money' by Dan Davies, which examines various types of financial fraud and their implications for the broader economy. The review covers the book's main themes, including the idea that fraud is an equilibrium phenomenon, the importance of trust networks in facilitating fraud, and how complex systems are more vulnerable to exploitation. It discusses the four types of white-collar crime outlined in the book: long firm fraud, counterfeiting, control fraud, and market crimes. The review also highlights the book's insights on how frauds tend to grow over time and the challenges in preventing and prosecuting financial crimes. The reviewer adds their own analysis, particularly on the recent FTX cryptocurrency scandal, which is not covered in the book but fits well with its themes. Shorter summary