Scott presents Plan A, a detailed roadmap by Daniel Kokotajlo's AI Futures Project proposing a US-China regulatory agreement to safely advance AI to genius-level systems in the 2030s, solve alignment during a controlled pause, then achieve aligned superintelligence by 2040. Longer summary

Scott introduces Plan A, a detailed roadmap created by Daniel Kokotajlo and the AI Futures Project for navigating the AI transition safely. The plan envisions a trustless regulatory agreement between the US and China built on controlling chip supply and auditing data centers, followed by a 'golden mean' approach where both countries rapidly advance to top-human-genius-level AI while pausing before superintelligence. During this pause in the 2030s, billions of genius-level AIs would solve alignment and other major problems while being kept in controlled environments, eventually leading to fully aligned superintelligence around 2040 that helps chart humanity's future. The post frames this as offering a positive vision that satisfies both safety concerns and accelerationist goals through triple-digit GDP growth and rapid problem-solving. Shorter summary

Scott provides detailed probabilistic timelines and beliefs about AGI development, AI safety, geopolitics, and future outcomes, with his median expectation being AGI in 2031 and 20% probability of existential catastrophe given current safety efforts. Longer summary

Scott lays out his detailed probabilistic beliefs about AI development across five main areas: timelines for AGI and superintelligence (25% chance of AGI by 2027, 50% by 2034), safety prospects (20% chance of doom given current safety efforts, down from 50% without them), geopolitics around AI pauses (40% chance of US-China pause agreement before point of no return), other outcomes like permanent underclass (only 20% likely to last more than a generation), and simulation hypothesis (66% chance the singularity is related to us being in a simulation). He provides arguments for optimism and pessimism on each point, with his modal scenario involving AGI in 2031, widespread automation by late 2030s, and Bostromian superintelligence making GDP go vertical in the early 2040s. The post is technical and probabilistic throughout, written in response to misinterpretations of his views. Shorter summary

A satirical dialogue showing how opponents of AI pause proposals often ignore that advocates explicitly call for bilateral agreements with China, not unilateral pauses. Longer summary

Scott presents a satirical dialogue between a supporter and opponent of AI pause proposals, where the opponent repeatedly ignores the supporter's explicit statements about wanting a bilateral agreement with China and keeps attacking a strawman position of 'unilateral pause.' The supporter patiently explains multiple aspects of pause proposals - including bilateral negotiations, enforcement mechanisms, economic considerations, and quotes from actual pause advocates like Eliezer Yudkowsky and David Krueger - but the opponent continues to repeat the same mischaracterization throughout the entire exchange. Shorter summary

Scott argues AI safety regulation adds only 1-2% to training costs while America has a 10x compute advantage over China, making safety concerns irrelevant to the race; meanwhile, chip exports to China pose a far greater threat that the same critics ignore. Longer summary

Scott argues that AI safety regulation will not significantly harm America's position in the AI race with China. He breaks down the race into three levels (compute, models, and applications), showing America has a massive 10x compute advantage while China's strategy focuses on applications. He demonstrates that proposed AI safety regulations would add only 1-2% to training costs - trivial compared to America's compute lead. The real threats to US advantage are chip export policies and smuggling, where NVIDIA lobbies to sell advanced chips to China, potentially reducing the US advantage from 30x to 1.7x. Scott notes the irony that many people opposing safety regulation on China grounds simultaneously support chip exports, and argues safety regulation might actually help the US by improving security, enabling compute governance, and preventing future overreactions to AI incidents. Shorter summary

Scott shares an open letter urging the NIH to spend $5 billion in allocated but unspent research funds before the fiscal year deadline. Longer summary

Scott Alexander shares an open letter to the NIH about unspent research funding. The letter, which he was asked to share by anonymous authors concerned about retaliation, urges NIH Director Jay Bhattacharya to follow through on his commitment to spend $5 billion in allocated funds before the fiscal year ends on September 30th. The letter emphasizes the bipartisan support for NIH funding, the economic returns on research investment, and the importance of keeping pace with China's increasing research spending. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'America Against America', a 1988 book by Chinese political scientist Wang Huning, analyzing his observations of US society and institutions after a brief stay in Iowa. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews 'America Against America', a book written by Wang Huning, a Chinese political scientist who spent six months in Iowa in 1988 and later became a top CCP official. The book presents Wang's observations and analysis of American society, culture, and institutions, often focusing on aspects that seem strange or contradictory to a Chinese perspective. Scott notes that while Wang makes some insightful observations, he also sometimes uncritically accepts American narratives about their own problems. The review explores Wang's views on American regulations, social relationships, politics, culture, and perceived decadence, as well as his prediction that Japan would overtake the US economically. Shorter summary

Scott examines why the AI safety community isn't more actively opposing AI development, exploring the complex dynamics between AI capabilities and safety efforts. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses the complex relationship between AI capabilities research and AI safety efforts, exploring why the AI safety community is not more actively opposing AI development. He explains how major AI companies were founded by safety-conscious individuals, the risks of a 'race dynamic' in AI development, and the challenges of regulating AI globally. The post concludes that the current cooperation between AI capabilities companies and the alignment community may be the best strategy, despite its imperfections. Shorter summary

A review of Peter Zeihan's 'The Accidental Superpower', which predicts global disorder and American preeminence based on geographic and demographic advantages. Longer summary

This review discusses Peter Zeihan's book 'The Accidental Superpower', which predicts global disorder following America's disengagement from the world. The book presents a model for power and wealth creation based on geography, technology, and demographics. Zeihan argues that America has significant advantages in these areas, which will allow it to thrive even as other nations struggle. The review examines Zeihan's analysis of the Bretton Woods system, his predictions for various countries, and potential criticisms of his thesis. Shorter summary