A deep dive into the Book of Abraham, focusing on how Joseph Smith's translations of Egyptian papyri were definitively proven false by Egyptologists, yet Mormonism continues to thrive—raising questions about whether instrumental rationality trumps epistemic rationality. Longer summary

This review examines the Book of Abraham, a Mormon scripture that Joseph Smith claimed to translate from Egyptian papyri purchased in 1835. The post methodically presents evidence showing Smith's translation was fraudulent: Egyptologists identified the papyri as standard funerary texts (the Book of Breathings for a priest named Hôr, dated 150 BC), not Abraham's writings from 2000 BC; Smith's interpretations of the three facsimiles contradict expert consensus (including identifying the god Min's erect phallus as God on his throne); and the rediscovery of the original papyri in 1967 confirmed they don't match Smith's translation. The author also covers Smith's history of treasure-digging with seer stones, the fraudulent Kirtland Anti-Banking Company, and the forged Kinderhook Plates. Despite all this evidence, Mormonism continues to grow and produces highly successful, charitable, tight-knit communities. The post concludes by exploring how a demonstrably false belief system can be instrumentally rational through costly signaling, community cohesion, and psychologically optimized doctrines that give members purpose and identity. Shorter summary

Scott's monthly roundup of interesting links covering AI policy developments, technology news, cultural observations, and scientific research from December 2025. Longer summary

This is Scott Alexander's monthly collection of links and commentary covering diverse topics. Major themes include AI policy battles (chip sales to China, regulation debates, political campaigns), startup news (Substrate fraud allegations, Tornyol mosquito drones), and scientific updates (COVID origins, Hitler's DNA, lactose intolerance). The post also covers cultural topics like the first millennial saint, Dimes Square commentary, and political polling about ideal Democratic candidates. Scott provides his characteristic mix of straightforward reporting, skeptical analysis, and occasional humor throughout the 53 linked items. Shorter summary

The review examines 'Lying for Money' by Dan Davies, which explores various types of financial fraud and their economic implications, discussing main themes and types of white-collar crime. Longer summary

This book review explores 'Lying for Money' by Dan Davies, which examines various types of financial fraud and their implications for the broader economy. The review covers the book's main themes, including the idea that fraud is an equilibrium phenomenon, the importance of trust networks in facilitating fraud, and how complex systems are more vulnerable to exploitation. It discusses the four types of white-collar crime outlined in the book: long firm fraud, counterfeiting, control fraud, and market crimes. The review also highlights the book's insights on how frauds tend to grow over time and the challenges in preventing and prosecuting financial crimes. The reviewer adds their own analysis, particularly on the recent FTX cryptocurrency scandal, which is not covered in the book but fits well with its themes. Shorter summary

Scott analyzes the projected drop in DC's high school graduation rates, exploring various explanations and comparing DC to other states, ultimately suggesting widespread inflation of graduation rates elsewhere. Longer summary

This post discusses the projected drop in high school graduation rates in Washington DC from 73% to 42%. Scott examines possible explanations, including incompetent administration, unique challenges due to demographics, and overcorrection from previous fraud. He analyzes test scores and compares DC to other states, finding that DC's scores, while low, don't justify such a low graduation rate. Scott suggests that many other cities might be using fraud and low standards to inflate their graduation rates, and that DC's projected rate might be an overcorrection that unfairly penalizes students. He hopes DC will find ways to graduate more students to align with national norms. Shorter summary