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Scott examines the debate over open-weights AI, explaining why he remains neutral despite risks of criminal misuse, arguing that waiting for inevitable incidents is more strategic than preemptively burning political capital fighting the strong pro-open-weights coalition.
Scott Alexander analyzes California's AI regulation bill SB1047, finding it reasonably well-designed despite misrepresentations, and ultimately supporting it as a compromise between safety and innovation.
Scott Alexander discusses recent events in prediction markets, including a costly prank on Manifold, debt ceiling forecasts, a study on long-term predictions, and a high-profile hyperinflation bet.
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