Scott Alexander examines the historical link between gout and achievement, ultimately finding the evidence unconvincing despite some intriguing connections. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the historical association between gout and high achievement, discussing a theory that high uric acid levels might contribute to success. He examines the biological basis for this idea, comparing uric acid to caffeine and theacrine. However, after reviewing several studies, Scott concludes that the evidence for this theory is weak and inconsistent. He then discusses more recent research linking uric acid to mood disorders, particularly mania, but suggests that more research is needed before any firm conclusions can be drawn. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander attempts to replicate a study linking beef jerky consumption to manic episodes in bipolar disorder, finding no significant relationship in his analysis of SSC survey data. Longer summary

Scott Alexander attempts to replicate a study that claimed beef jerky consumption could trigger manic episodes in bipolar disorder. He uses data from the 2019 Slate Star Codex survey to compare beef jerky consumption between people with and without a history of bipolar mania hospitalization. Contrary to the original study, Scott's analysis finds no significant relationship between beef jerky consumption and manic episodes. He discusses the limitations of his data, such as relying on self-reporting and having a smaller sample size of manic patients, but also notes some strengths like a more detailed measure of beef jerky consumption. Scott concludes by urging further research on this topic, highlighting the importance of replication in scientific studies. Shorter summary

Scott reviews a paper proposing a computational model of mood and emotions based on predictive processing, discussing its implications for understanding mood disorders. Longer summary

This post discusses a paper by Clark, Watson, and Friston that proposes a computational perspective on mood and emotions. The authors argue that emotions reflect changes in the uncertainty about the somatic consequences of action, while mood corresponds to hyperpriors about emotional states. The theory suggests that depression is a prediction of bad outcomes with high confidence, mania is a prediction of good outcomes with high confidence, and anxiety is a prediction of bad outcomes with low confidence. The post explores how this theory explains various aspects of mood disorders and their symptoms, including learned helplessness and the role of serotonin. The author finds the theory intriguing but notes some inconsistencies, particularly in unifying the concepts of 'prior on bad outcomes' and 'low precision of predictions'. Shorter summary

Scott proposes a speculative theory of depression as pathologically low confidence in neural predictions within the predictive processing framework, explaining how this could account for various depressive symptoms. Longer summary

This post explores a potential theory of depression within the predictive processing (PP) framework. Scott starts by noting the lack of a compelling PP account for depression, then proposes that depression might be a state of pathologically low confidence in neural predictions. He explains how this could account for various symptoms of depression, including perceptual changes, psychomotor retardation, and lack of motivation. The post then speculates on why low confidence might cause sadness, suggesting that emotions could be a way of globally adjusting confidence levels based on past success or failure. Scott acknowledges the speculative nature of these ideas and some potential problems with the theory. Shorter summary