Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets for the Ukraine crisis, introduces Manifold Markets, and discusses recent Metaculus questions and forecasting initiatives. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses various prediction markets and forecasting platforms, focusing on the Ukraine crisis, a new prediction market called Manifold Markets, and recent questions on Metaculus. He analyzes the probabilities of a Russian invasion of Ukraine across different platforms, introduces the concept of an 'Alexander Cube' for ideal prediction markets, and highlights interesting markets on Manifold. The post also covers new Metaculus questions on intelligence enhancement and environmental issues, and mentions several forecasting-related contests and grants. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander introduces 'Metaculus Monday', a series focusing on prediction markets, and discusses several Metaculus predictions about COVID-19. Longer summary

Scott Alexander introduces 'Metaculus Monday', a new series focusing on prediction markets, particularly Metaculus. He explains the current state of prediction markets, their limitations due to regulatory issues, and why he's chosen to focus on Metaculus. The post then delves into several Metaculus predictions about COVID-19, including total US deaths by the end of 2021, vaccine availability, vaccination rates, and potential new variants. Scott offers his own thoughts on these predictions and highlights the potential of prediction markets for informing policy decisions. Shorter summary