Scott examines the likelihood and potential severity of an H5N1 bird flu pandemic, analyzing prediction markets and historical data to estimate a 5% chance of pandemic in the next year with most likely moderate severity. Longer summary

Scott Alexander provides a comprehensive overview of H5N1 bird flu and its pandemic potential. He starts by explaining what flu is and its history of pandemics, then focuses on H5N1's current situation, analyzing prediction market estimates for its chances of causing a pandemic. The post examines different mortality scenarios and their likelihood, using data from past flu pandemics and current cases. It concludes with specific predictions about H5N1's future impact, suggesting a 5% chance of human pandemic in the next year, with varying degrees of severity if it occurs. Shorter summary

A review of 'Two Arms and a Head', a paraplegic's memoir and argument for physician-assisted suicide, exploring the book's content and the broader debate around Medical Assistance in Dying. Longer summary

This review examines 'Two Arms and a Head', a memoir and suicide note written by Clayton Schwartz, a philosophy student who became paraplegic after a motorcycle accident. The book details the physical and emotional devastation of paraplegia, argues for the legalization of physician-assisted suicide, and criticizes society's approach to disability. The review also explores the current state of Medical Assistance in Dying (MAiD) and the arguments against it from disability rights organizations. Shorter summary

Scott reviews Viktor Orban's rise to power in Hungary, detailing his political transformation and methods of consolidating control through exploiting constitutional loopholes. Longer summary

This post reviews Viktor Orban's rise to power in Hungary, detailing his transformation from a liberal democrat to a far-right nationalist and his methods of consolidating control. Scott describes Orban's background, his political maneuvering, and how he exploited Hungary's political system to create a near-impregnable position. The post also discusses Orban's anti-immigrant stance during the 2015 refugee crisis and his attempts to boost Hungary's fertility rate. Scott concludes by expressing his dislike for Orban, comparing him unfavorably to other dictators, and warning about the dangers of leaving political loopholes that can be exploited by such figures. Shorter summary

Scott investigates unusually high suicide rates in Guyana, Greenland, and Siberian regions, exploring potential ethnic, cultural, and social factors contributing to these trends. Longer summary

This post explores unusually high suicide rates in different parts of the world, focusing on Guyana, Greenland, and remote Siberian regions. Scott examines potential causes for these high rates, including ethnic and cultural factors, alcohol consumption, social disruption, and abuse. For Guyana, he notes the high rate among Indo-Guyanese, speculating on possible cultural or historical reasons. In Greenland, he discusses the dramatic increase in suicide rates since the 1970s, linking it to forced modernization and a spike in alcohol consumption. For Siberian groups, he explores various theories including genetics and cultural traditions, but ultimately suggests that the combination of alcohol-naive hunter-gatherers, high alcohol consumption, and disruption of traditional ways of life may be the primary factors across these regions. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links and brief commentary spanning topics from scientific research to cultural phenomena, including updates on various studies challenging previous beliefs. Longer summary

This is a links post containing short summaries and comments on various news, studies, and interesting articles. Topics covered include gun violence research, genetic studies, college admissions and tuition, nutrition science, criminal justice reform, and cultural effects. Scott discusses new research challenging previous beliefs about bilingualism and drug side effects, shares interesting discoveries about religious effects on society, and provides updates on various scientific and technological developments. The post also includes commentary on political developments, interesting place names, and various cultural phenomena. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering topics like Chinese religion, economics, science, and technology, with commentary on their broader implications. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting news and studies from around the internet. Topics range from Chinese religion to Venezuelan economics, from police body cameras to psychedelics research. Notable items include studies about police body cameras reducing misconduct, BPA affecting brain development, and psychedelics potentially protecting against mental illness. The post also covers geopolitical developments like Cuba-US relations and Venezuela's economic troubles, as well as scientific advances like AI poker and mammoth cloning. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links from November 2014 covering science, technology, politics, and culture, with Scott's commentary and analysis on each. Longer summary

This is a links post collecting various interesting stories and articles from around the web. The post covers a wide range of topics, from scientific discoveries like saltwater crops and hover technology, to social issues like online harassment statistics and Ethiopia's economic growth. Scott provides brief commentary and often humorous observations about each link, while maintaining his characteristic analytical approach to evaluating claims and studies. Shorter summary

The post shares insights and anecdotes from a forensic psychiatry conference, covering topics like the insanity defense, criminal psychology, and death penalty cases. Longer summary

This post summarizes highlights from the author's notes taken at a forensic psychiatry conference. It covers various aspects of forensic psychiatry, including the insanity defense, methods for detecting fake insanity pleas, predicting recidivism, death penalty cases, and anecdotes from criminal cases. The author presents surprising statistics about the insanity defense, describes techniques used to detect malingering, and shares interesting fragments of stories from criminal cases. The post also touches on issues related to jury selection in death penalty cases and the effectiveness of capital punishment as a deterrent. Shorter summary