Scott Alexander argues that missing a year or two of school is unlikely to have significant long-term effects on children's education, presenting evidence and critiquing contrary studies. Longer summary

Scott Alexander argues that missing a year or two of school due to COVID-19 or other reasons is unlikely to have significant long-term effects on children's education. He presents evidence from various studies and experiments, such as the Benezet experiment, unschooling, and different countries' school hours, to support his claim. Scott also critiques studies that show negative effects of school absences, arguing they are often correlational and fail to account for confounders. He acknowledges some potential non-academic benefits of schooling and provides his confidence levels on various predictions about the effects of missing school. Shorter summary

The post explores a controversial theory linking saturated fats to weight control, critically examines the evidence, and discusses the paradox of historical vs. modern diets and obesity rates. Longer summary

This post discusses the history of obesity in the US and explores a controversial dietary theory that blames the switch from saturated to unsaturated fats for the obesity epidemic. The author first presents the theory, which suggests that high saturated fat diets might be beneficial for weight control. However, in the second part, the author critically examines the evidence and finds it lacking. The post concludes by discussing possible explanations for the paradox of why modern diets seem to cause obesity while historical diets did not, despite the difficulty in finding a consistently effective weight loss diet. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander critically examines studies on preschool effects, finding mixed and inconsistent evidence for long-term benefits. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews multiple studies on the long-term effects of preschool programs like Head Start. While early studies showed fade-out of test score gains, some found lasting benefits in adult outcomes. However, Scott finds inconsistencies between studies in which subgroups benefit and on which outcomes. He also notes concerns about potential p-hacking and researcher degrees of freedom. Ultimately, Scott concludes that the evidence is mixed - it permits believing preschool has small positive effects, but does not force that conclusion. He estimates 60% odds preschool helps in ways suggested by the studies, 40% odds it's useless. Shorter summary

Scott shares and comments on various interesting links from July 2014, covering topics from scientific research to cultural oddities, with his characteristic mix of intellectual analysis and humor. Longer summary

A collection of interesting links covering various topics from science, religion, and politics to quirky facts and historical events. The post includes discussions about genetic causes of obesity, quantum mechanics research, marijuana's relationship with schizophrenia, and various cultural phenomena. Scott shares both scientific findings and amusing anecdotes, ranging from ISIS's global domination plans to a Malaysian cult with a giant teapot. The links are presented with Scott's characteristic mix of intellectual curiosity and humor, often adding his own insights or skeptical observations to the shared content. Shorter summary