Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including Metaculus' milestone, PredictIt's legal issues, and various prediction market topics. Longer summary

This Mantic Monday post covers several topics related to prediction markets and forecasting. Scott discusses Metaculus reaching its one millionth prediction, PredictIt's legal battle with the CFTC, former Russian President Medvedev's outlandish 2023 predictions, conspiracy theory prediction markets, Scott's own 2022 prediction calibration results, updates on 'scandal markets', and highlights from various current prediction markets. He also shares some thoughts on the challenges and potential pitfalls of certain types of prediction markets. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander provides updates on the ACX Grants project, summarizing the progress of grantees and their ongoing needs. Longer summary

This post provides updates on the ACX Grants project, where Scott Alexander awarded grants to various individuals and organizations for innovative projects. The post summarizes the progress of each grantee, their self-assessed performance on a scale of 1-10, and any additional help or funding they are seeking. The projects range from scientific research and technology development to policy advocacy and social initiatives. Scott also reflects on lessons learned from the grant program and announces the creation of an ACX Grantees Discord for grantees to connect with each other. Shorter summary