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study critique (270)
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effective altruism (105)
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study critique (270)
book review (223)
AI (112)
economics (105)
effective altruism (105)
education (93)
creative writing (91)
debate (90)
forecasting (89)
politics (89)
prediction markets (88)
science (85)
AI safety (79)
media criticism (76)
neuroscience (76)
rationality (76)
psychiatry (73)
psychology (72)
mental health (69)
highlights from the comments (68)
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domain: predictionbook.com (2 posts)
domain: slatestarcodex.com (1128 posts)
domain: wikipedia.org (898 posts)
domain: astralcodexten.com (562 posts)
domain: lesswrong.com (492 posts)
domain: twitter.com / x.com (445 posts)
domain: nih.gov (334 posts)
domain: reddit.com (321 posts)
domain: amazon.com (277 posts)
domain: substack.com (269 posts)
domain: google.com (235 posts)
domain: nytimes.com (229 posts)
domain: wordpress.com (175 posts)
domain: tumblr.com (159 posts)
domain: vox.com (159 posts)
domain: washingtonpost.com (143 posts)
domain: marginalrevolution.com (140 posts)
domain: sciencedirect.com (131 posts)
domain: theguardian.com (130 posts)
subreddit: slatestarcodex (130 posts)
domain: youtube.com (129 posts)
Remember which posts I've read on this device
2 posts
Date
Length
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Comments
forecasting (89) prediction markets (88) Metaculus (34) Mantic Monday (22) Polymarket (10) inflation (8) PredictIt (5) Jeff Bezos (3)

Mantic Monday 6/21/21

Scott discusses various prediction markets and forecasting topics, including Metaculus predictions, Polymarket vs PredictIt, a study on forecasting accuracy, and the need for more precise inflation predictions from experts.

acx
Jun 22, 2021 1,447 words 51 likes 158 comments Listen · 15 min Read Read Opened Opened
rationality (76) cognitive bias (59) IQ (37) community building (23) calibration (23) survey methodology (19) prediction (16) LessWrong (15) LessWrong survey (14) community demographics (13) survey results (8) overconfidence (5)

2012 Survey Results

Scott presents comprehensive results from the 2012 Less Wrong Survey of 1195 respondents, covering demographics, beliefs, IQ measures, and a concerning calibration test showing poor performance at avoiding overconfidence bias.

lw
Dec 7, 2012 5,419 words 120 likes 653 comments Read Read Opened Opened
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