Scott Alexander examines the Metaculus scoring rule controversy and the challenges of long-term prediction markets, discussing potential solutions and their limitations. Longer summary

Scott Alexander discusses two main topics in this post: the controversy surrounding Metaculus' scoring rules and the challenges of long-term prediction markets. He explains the criticism that Metaculus' scoring system may incentivize quantity over quality in predictions, and presents the platform's defense. Scott then explores the difficulties of creating prediction markets for events far in the future, discussing potential solutions and their limitations. The post concludes with some short links to other prediction-related topics. Shorter summary

A collection of interesting links covering science, technology, culture, and economics, including updates on DNA malware, AI gaming, prison censorship, and various scientific studies. Longer summary

This is a link roundup post covering various interesting news and studies. Topics include DNA-encoded malware, AI in gaming, prison book bans, studies on therapy effectiveness, global inequality trends, and various scientific and cultural curiosities. The post follows Scott's typical link roundup format, providing brief commentary and context for each item, often with a mix of serious analysis and humorous observations. He covers both academic research and popular culture, maintaining his characteristic balance of intellectual rigor and accessibility. Shorter summary