Scott explores reader responses to his Fatima miracle post, finding the most promising explanation in Buddhist fire kasina meditation practices that produce similar visual phenomena, while remaining uncertain about how 70,000 untrained people could achieve advanced meditative states instantly. Longer summary

Scott discusses reader responses to his previous post about the Fatima sun miracle, exploring new theories and evidence. The most promising explanation connects the phenomenon to 'fire kasina' meditation, a Buddhist practice of staring at bright lights that produces similar visual effects including spinning, color changes, and complex imagery. He examines the parallel case of Iranians seeing Ayatollah Khomeini's face in the moon in 1978, analyzes various videos of modern sun miracles (concluding they're camera artifacts), interviews a Medjugorje witness, and engages with Ethan Muse's counterarguments about the miracle being an objective phenomenon. Scott also addresses philosophical questions about miracles and Bayesian reasoning, ultimately remaining uncertain but slightly less confused than before, with fire kasina providing the best but still imperfect explanation. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander argues against the fear of a chatbot propaganda apocalypse, presenting several reasons why its impact would be limited and offering predictions for 2030. Longer summary

Scott Alexander expresses skepticism about the chatbot propaganda apocalypse, a concern that AI-powered chatbots could be used to spread disinformation at scale. He argues that the impact of such bots would be limited due to existing social and technological anti-bot filters, fear of backlash, and the likelihood that establishment narratives would benefit more than disinformation. Scott suggests that crypto scams are a more likely use for chatbots than political propaganda. He acknowledges that chatbots might decrease serendipitous friendships but also considers potential positive outcomes if chatbots become good at social interactions. The post concludes with several predictions about the impact of chatbots on online discourse by 2030. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explores a theory suggesting that complex features of human biology evolved as defenses against parasite manipulation, discussing its implications for understanding psychiatric medications and biological complexity. Longer summary

This post discusses a theory proposed by Marco del Giudice in his paper 'Brain Evolution Through The Lens Of Parasite Manipulation'. The theory suggests that many complex features of human biology, particularly in neurotransmitter systems, evolved as defenses against parasite manipulation of host behavior. The post outlines various strategies that organisms might use to defend against such manipulation, including complicated signaling cascades, feedback loops, pulse-based communication, individual variability, and the use of antimicrobial substances as neurotransmitters. Scott Alexander explores the implications of this theory for understanding psychiatric medications, tolerance effects, and the complexity of human biology. He concludes by discussing the strengths and potential weaknesses of the theory, noting that while it's an interesting perspective, it's too early to determine its full validity or impact. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander reviews a book attributing rising service costs to the Baumol effect, finding it convincing but raising some concerns about conflicting data and affordability issues. Longer summary

Scott Alexander reviews the book 'Why Are The Prices So D*mn High?' by economists Alex Tabarrok and Eric Helland, which attributes rising costs in services like healthcare and education to the Baumol effect. The authors argue that as productivity increases in some sectors, wages rise across all sectors, making labor-intensive services relatively more expensive. Scott finds their case convincing but raises some concerns, including data on stagnant real wages, conflicting information on professional salaries, and the apparent decrease in affordability of services like education, which the Baumol effect shouldn't cause. He seeks further clarification on these points to fully accept the Baumol effect as the primary explanation for cost disease. Shorter summary

Scott shares and comments on various interesting links spanning history, science, economics, and current events, with topics ranging from ancient Greek snake warfare to modern AI development. Longer summary

A collection of diverse links covering various topics, from historical anecdotes about ancient Greek warfare with snakes to modern developments in CRISPR technology and urban policy. Scott presents interesting findings about bullying interventions, Vitamin D supplementation, and mental health in different societies. The post includes commentary on various current events, including Venezuela's economic situation, drug policy debates, and AI development at OpenAI. The post maintains Scott's characteristic mix of scholarly interest and humor throughout. Shorter summary