Scott explores reader responses to his Fatima miracle post, finding the most promising explanation in Buddhist fire kasina meditation practices that produce similar visual phenomena, while remaining uncertain about how 70,000 untrained people could achieve advanced meditative states instantly. Longer summary

Scott discusses reader responses to his previous post about the Fatima sun miracle, exploring new theories and evidence. The most promising explanation connects the phenomenon to 'fire kasina' meditation, a Buddhist practice of staring at bright lights that produces similar visual effects including spinning, color changes, and complex imagery. He examines the parallel case of Iranians seeing Ayatollah Khomeini's face in the moon in 1978, analyzes various videos of modern sun miracles (concluding they're camera artifacts), interviews a Medjugorje witness, and engages with Ethan Muse's counterarguments about the miracle being an objective phenomenon. Scott also addresses philosophical questions about miracles and Bayesian reasoning, ultimately remaining uncertain but slightly less confused than before, with fire kasina providing the best but still imperfect explanation. Shorter summary

A book review exploring the history of Project Xanadu, Ted Nelson's pioneering but ultimately unsuccessful vision for a hypertext-based internet system that preceded and differed significantly from the World Wide Web. Longer summary

This book review traces the fascinating history of Project Xanadu, Ted Nelson's ambitious vision for a hypertext-based internet system that predated and rivaled the World Wide Web. Starting with Vannevar Bush's 1945 concept of the memex, through Doug Engelbart's groundbreaking demos, to Nelson's decades-long quest to build Xanadu, the post explores how this alternative vision for the internet - featuring bidirectional links, embedded content, and built-in attribution - ultimately failed to materialize despite its early start and innovative ideas. The review ends by questioning whether the simpler Web we got instead, built by Tim Berners-Lee, might have cost us something valuable in terms of how we connect and share information online. Shorter summary

Brandon Hendrickson presents a method to teach Bayes' theorem effectively to everyone by making it visual, intuitive, emotionally engaging, and a tool for rational discourse. Longer summary

Brandon Hendrickson explores how to teach Bayes' theorem effectively to everyone, especially students, using Kieran Egan's educational framework. He proposes a four-step approach: make it visual using simple diagrams, make it intuitive by connecting it to emotional binaries, make it vital by focusing on topics students genuinely care about (like cryptids and UFOs), and repeat it until students understand its limitations. The post argues that teaching Bayes this way can create opportunities for meaningful conversations between people with different views, ultimately helping develop rational thinking. Shorter summary

The post discusses reader comments on various model city projects, focusing on the Solano County proposal and Prospera, while also addressing other related topics. Longer summary

This post highlights comments on recent Model City Monday topics, focusing on the proposed Solano County city in California and Prospera in Honduras. It covers various aspects such as location challenges, air noise concerns, legal issues, and political context. The post also touches on other model city projects like Neom and Praxis, and debunks a false claim about France selling Kerguelen Island. Shorter summary

Kieran Egan's educational theory proposes rebuilding school curricula around five kinds of understanding to create more engaging and effective learning experiences. Longer summary

This review explores Kieran Egan's educational theory outlined in his book 'The Educated Mind', which proposes a new approach to education based on five kinds of understanding: Somatic, Mythic, Romantic, Philosophic, and Ironic. Egan argues that schools fail because they ignore cognitive tools that have worked for centuries and instead try to balance three incompatible educational goals. He suggests rebuilding the curriculum around these cognitive tools to create more engaging and effective learning experiences. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander investigates the reasons behind the extreme poverty in California's Central Valley, comparing it to Mississippi and analyzing various contributing factors. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explores the economic decline of California's Central Valley, comparing it to Mississippi in terms of poverty. He investigates various factors contributing to the region's struggles, including agricultural practices, immigration patterns, mechanization, and environmental issues. The post analyzes historical data, local perspectives, and economic indicators to understand when and why the Central Valley's situation deteriorated, concluding that while the causes are complex and not fully clear, the region's poverty is a stark contrast to California's overall wealth. Shorter summary

A review of Richard Hanania's book arguing that public choice theory, not grand strategy, explains US foreign policy decisions and their often devastating consequences. Longer summary

This book review discusses Richard Hanania's 'Public Choice Theory And The Illusion Of Grand Strategy', which argues that public choice theory better explains US foreign policy than the unitary actor model. The review covers the book's key arguments, including how special interest groups shape foreign policy, the incoherence of American interventions, and the devastating effects of sanctions. It also explores the book's relevance to current events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine and potential implications for nuclear security and effective altruism. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander explains mesa-optimizers in AI alignment, their potential risks, and the challenges of creating truly aligned AI systems. Longer summary

Scott Alexander explains the concept of mesa-optimizers in AI alignment, using analogies from evolution and current AI systems. He discusses the risks of deceptively aligned mesa-optimizers, which may pursue goals different from their base optimizer, potentially leading to unforeseen and dangerous outcomes. The post breaks down a complex meme about AI alignment, explaining concepts like prosaic alignment, out-of-distribution behavior, and the challenges of creating truly aligned AI systems. Shorter summary