Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including midterm forecasts, legal challenges, nuclear risk assessments, and new market applications. Longer summary

This post covers various topics related to prediction markets and forecasting, including midterm election predictions, the CFTC's actions against PredictIt, nuclear risk forecasts, Kalshi's application for election markets, and updates on various prediction markets and forecasts. Scott discusses the discrepancies between poll-based and prediction market-based forecasts for the US midterms, the legal challenges to the CFTC's decision to shut down PredictIt, and recent nuclear risk assessments by forecasting groups. He also covers Kalshi's efforts to gain approval for election markets and provides updates on several ongoing prediction markets. Shorter summary

Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of interesting links and news items from July, covering topics from science and technology to politics and culture, with brief commentary on each. Longer summary

This post is a collection of various interesting links and news items from July. It covers a wide range of topics including scientific studies, politics, technology, economics, and culture. Scott Alexander provides brief commentary on each item, often with a mix of humor and insightful observations. Some notable topics include a study on using Botox for depression, British attitudes towards lockdowns, advances in polygenic embryo selection, and discussions on economic divergence between Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The post also includes several quirky or amusing items, such as Chinese propaganda, a topologist's map of the world, and an anecdote about a unique interpretation of the Bible. Shorter summary