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The post discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including challenges in market design, updates to forecasting platforms, and current market predictions on various topics.
Scott Alexander reviews Tom Davidson's model predicting AI will progress from automating 20% of jobs to superintelligence in about 4 years, discussing its implications and comparisons to other AI forecasts.
Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links and news items, covering topics from architecture and history to AI developments and scientific studies, with brief commentary on many items.